NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
113–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL22323227113
DEN32322927120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 27 11 7
Jaxson Hayes 27 19 5 2
Austin Reaves S 38 16 5 7
Rui Hachimura 29 16 2 3
LeBron James S 34 16 5 8
Marcus Smart S 32 9 1 2
Luke Kennard 20 8 0 0
Jake LaRavia 10 2 0 1
Deandre Ayton S 5 0 2 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 28 12 13
Jamal Murray S 38 28 4 7
Julian Strawther S 29 18 2 0
Christian Braun S 40 15 5 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 14 2 0
Bruce Brown 30 8 6 1
Zeke Nnaji S 24 5 5 1
Jonas Valanciunas 10 4 4 1
Tyus Jones 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
11%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
10%
7 Christian Braun DEN
9%
8 Julian Strawther DEN
9%
9 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
25%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.8 12.6 9.2
2 Luka Doncic LAL 25.3 5.9 6.9
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.0 4.3 5.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 19.8 4.3 4.7
5 LeBron James LAL 17.1 4.4 5.4
6 Christian Braun DEN 14.4 5.7 3.3
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.6 3.0 1.6
8 Julian Strawther DEN 11.7 3.1 1.7
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.3 3.1 1.2
10 Marcus Smart LAL 10.0 2.9 3.0
11 Bruce Brown DEN 9.7 3.4 2.7
12 Luke Kennard LAL 9.5 2.7 1.9
13 Deandre Ayton LAL 9.5 7.6 1.2
14 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.2 3.3 1.5
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.9 4.7 1.2
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.0 4.4 0.9
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.9 3.1 0.7
18 Tyus Jones DEN 3.8 0.9 2.6
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.5 1.1
20 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.3 1.2 0.6
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.2 1.3 0.5
22 Bronny James LAL 3.0 0.8 1.0
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 2.3 0.6
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.4 1.1 0.3
25 Adou Thiero LAL 1.9 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.