NBA games

CHI @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
105–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24312822105
PHX20302726103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHX
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 38 30 3 5
Tre Jones S 29 21 6 5
Guerschon Yabusele S 37 16 6 2
Rob Dillingham 21 11 2 1
Nick Richards 29 9 11 1
Leonard Miller S 24 8 9 0
Isaac Okoro S 36 6 1 3
Yuki Kawamura 10 0 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 32 27 6 2
Grayson Allen 33 21 2 8
Jalen Green S 32 12 3 3
Amir Coffey 17 12 4 0
Oso Ighodaro S 36 10 9 4
Ryan Dunn 24 6 11 1
Rasheer Fleming 11 5 3 1
Collin Gillespie S 25 5 2 5
Royce O'Neale S 18 3 4 0
Khaman Maluach 12 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes 9-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Isaac Okoro CHI
12%
3 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
12%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
5 Tre Jones CHI
11%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
10%
8 Jalen Green PHX
10%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
10 Collin Sexton CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
40%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Grayson Allen PHX 22.8 3.7 5.5
2 Matas Buzelis CHI 18.0 6.1 2.7
3 Devin Booker PHX 17.9 3.5 4.5
4 Josh Giddey CHI 15.5 5.9 6.6
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 14.4 3.9 5.3
6 Jalen Green PHX 13.9 3.8 2.6
7 Collin Sexton CHI 13.4 2.7 2.2
8 Tre Jones CHI 12.2 3.3 5.3
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.8 4.7 2.8
10 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.8 3.3 1.9
11 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.1 5.5 2.1
12 Oso Ighodaro PHX 9.6 6.4 2.8
13 Nick Richards CHI 9.3 7.6 1.0
14 Rob Dillingham CHI 6.9 2.9 3.5
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.7 3.8 1.3
16 Amir Coffey PHX 6.3 2.6 1.4
17 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.1 2.5 0.9
18 Leonard Miller CHI 4.2 2.2 0.8
19 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.1 2.5 3.6
20 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.9 1.7 1.5
21 Mac McClung CHI 3.4 0.9 0.4
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.4 2.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.