NBA games

DET @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
106–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET23323021106
SA38332228121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home SA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 26 4 8
Isaiah Stewart 30 18 5 2
Tobias Harris S 31 11 4 1
Duncan Robinson S 26 11 3 1
Ronald Holland II 12 10 5 0
Javonte Green 19 10 3 0
Jalen Duren S 12 7 7 2
Kevin Huerter 17 7 5 2
Paul Reed 9 6 4 0
Chaz Lanier 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 39 38 16 3
De'Aaron Fox S 32 29 5 3
Julian Champagnie S 31 16 7 1
Stephon Castle S 35 11 1 12
Devin Vassell S 31 8 3 3
Keldon Johnson 22 8 4 1
Dylan Harper 20 7 2 1
Carter Bryant 20 2 6 0
Luke Kornet 8 2 1 0
Bismack Biyombo 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Tobias Harris DET
8%
7 Devin Vassell SA
8%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 De'Aaron Fox SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
17%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.4 10.0 3.5
2 Cade Cunningham DET 20.3 6.3 8.6
3 Stephon Castle SA 17.6 4.6 6.4
4 Jalen Duren DET 16.6 10.3 1.7
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.5 4.1 2.9
6 Dylan Harper SA 13.5 3.7 4.6
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.7 6.9 1.9
8 Duncan Robinson DET 10.9 3.1 2.2
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 6.3 3.8
10 De'Aaron Fox SA 10.2 2.5 4.1
11 Paul Reed DET 9.7 6.2 1.1
12 Keldon Johnson SA 9.3 3.6 1.2
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.8 3.9 1.8
14 Ronald Holland II DET 8.6 5.2 1.4
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.2 3.6 1.1
16 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.5 2.2 1.2
17 Caris LeVert DET 6.3 2.2 1.9
18 Carter Bryant SA 5.7 3.3 1.1
19 Javonte Green DET 5.2 2.8 0.8
20 Luke Kornet SA 4.8 4.5 1.3
21 Kevin Huerter DET 4.6 2.9 1.3
22 Marcus Sasser DET 3.5 0.8 1.4
23 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 0.9 0.8
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.1 1.4 0.8
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.0 1.2 0.9
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.3 1.2 0.6
27 Chaz Lanier DET 2.1 0.8 0.3
28 Bobi Klintman DET 1.9 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.