NBA games

TOR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
107–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27272231107
MIN31243525115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 30 25 6 0
Immanuel Quickley S 30 18 3 7
Scottie Barnes S 36 16 2 3
Brandon Ingram S 30 14 5 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 24 11 2 1
Jakob Poeltl S 29 9 7 4
Gradey Dick 4 6 1 1
Jamison Battle 10 2 5 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 4 2 4 0
Jamal Shead 17 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 22 4 3
Rudy Gobert S 35 18 12 5
Julius Randle S 34 17 8 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 27 16 5 2
Ayo Dosunmu 27 13 1 1
Naz Reid 21 12 6 1
Jaden McDaniels S 21 8 2 4
Kyle Anderson 15 4 3 4
Bones Hyland 13 3 0 0
Julian Phillips 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 12-foot jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
11%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 Joan Beringer MIN
8%
9 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.1 4.8 3.4
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.9 3.3 6.1
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.3 7.3 5.4
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.0 4.5 3.8
5 RJ Barrett TOR 17.5 6.0 3.6
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.3 5.3 2.9
7 Scottie Barnes TOR 13.8 6.1 3.6
8 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 12.6 2.8 3.3
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.1 11.2 1.9
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.3 6.1 2.3
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.7 3.5 4.4
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.6 6.0 1.4
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.5 3.6 1.2
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.8 3.3 1.5
15 Jamal Shead TOR 7.6 2.6 3.9
16 Bones Hyland MIN 7.3 2.0 2.1
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.2 2.9 1.8
18 Gradey Dick TOR 3.5 2.0 0.6
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.2 0.8 0.4
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.1 2.2 0.6
21 Jamison Battle TOR 2.9 1.4 0.5
22 Mike Conley MIN 2.7 1.6 1.7
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.7 2.2 0.6
24 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.3 1.1 0.4
25 Joan Beringer MIN 2.2 1.5 0.3
26 Julian Phillips MIN 1.9 0.6 0.3
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.2 0.7 0.7
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.1 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.