NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
115–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
GS3021302014115
HOU2027351912113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 40 26 9 1
De'Anthony Melton S 30 23 6 2
Al Horford S 33 17 6 5
Gui Santos S 42 14 6 6
LJ Cryer 20 12 3 1
Draymond Green S 35 10 5 8
Pat Spencer 16 8 2 3
Quinten Post 20 3 6 3
Nate Williams 18 2 3 0
Malevy Leons 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard 37 30 3 6
Kevin Durant S 41 23 6 3
Amen Thompson S 44 18 10 5
Alperen Sengun S 37 17 7 7
Tari Eason S 34 9 5 2
Josh Okogie 18 9 4 0
Clint Capela 12 4 3 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 42 3 11 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 2-foot layup (Gui Santos assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 De'Anthony Melton GS
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Tari Eason HOU
8%
9 Al Horford GS
7%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
30%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 23.8 5.0 4.2
2 Reed Sheppard HOU 19.0 4.3 5.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.7 7.6 5.3
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.1 6.3 1.7
5 Amen Thompson HOU 16.5 7.8 4.5
6 Gui Santos GS 15.5 6.3 4.0
7 Moses Moody GS 15.2 3.9 2.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.0 7.2 4.3
9 De'Anthony Melton GS 14.7 3.3 3.1
10 Kristaps Porzingis GS 12.7 3.7 1.7
11 Tari Eason HOU 11.4 6.4 2.5
12 Al Horford GS 11.1 4.9 2.8
13 Pat Spencer GS 10.5 3.0 5.1
14 Draymond Green GS 10.1 5.1 4.4
15 Gary Payton II GS 9.1 3.2 1.7
16 Nate Williams GS 6.2 2.2 1.0
17 Will Richard GS 5.5 2.4 1.2
18 Quinten Post GS 5.4 4.0 1.2
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.7 2.6 1.1
20 Josh Okogie HOU 4.0 1.6 0.7
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.2 0.9
22 LJ Cryer GS 3.8 1.2 0.9
23 Malevy Leons GS 3.6 2.4 0.6
24 Clint Capela HOU 3.2 4.0 0.7
25 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.9 1.6 0.6
26 Jeff Green HOU 2.7 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.