NBA games

BKN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
110–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN26302727110
MIA31293531126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIA
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 27 13 3
Noah Clowney S 34 17 7 4
Nic Claxton S 28 16 8 1
Ziaire Williams 24 15 1 3
Nolan Traore S 25 9 3 9
Terance Mann S 29 7 8 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 7 5 1
Ochai Agbaji 10 6 0 0
Ben Saraf 16 6 1 2
Danny Wolf 14 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 31 25 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 25 21 7 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 18 7 7
Kel'el Ware 32 16 11 1
Pelle Larsson S 30 16 1 4
Kasparas Jakucionis 21 11 6 3
Dru Smith 21 9 2 2
Andrew Wiggins S 23 8 4 1
Davion Mitchell S 23 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
11%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
5 Norman Powell MIA
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
8 Nolan Traore BKN
8%
9 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.1 4.1 4.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.9 9.9 3.8
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 18.7 5.3 3.2
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 18.4 5.8 2.9
5 Norman Powell MIA 15.9 3.1 2.2
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.0 5.2 4.4
7 Nolan Traore BKN 14.6 2.9 5.3
8 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.4 4.6 4.5
9 Nic Claxton BKN 13.2 5.9 3.2
10 Danny Wolf BKN 12.1 5.0 2.9
11 Noah Clowney BKN 12.0 3.7 1.4
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.2 10.1 1.1
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.2 3.0 5.5
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.3 7.0 2.6
15 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 9.0 3.0 2.7
16 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.9 2.4 1.9
17 Terance Mann BKN 7.1 2.4 2.0
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.0 2.6 1.3
19 Ben Saraf BKN 6.4 1.8 2.9
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.0 2.2 0.8
21 Myron Gardner MIA 5.0 3.3 1.5
22 Grant Nelson BKN 4.7 2.8 1.4
23 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.4 2.1 0.9
24 Trevor Keels MIA 4.3 1.2 1.1
25 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.5 1.7 0.7
26 Dru Smith MIA 3.5 2.0 1.7
27 Jahmir Young MIA 3.5 1.2 1.0
28 Josh Minott BKN 3.4 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.