NBA games

DAL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
114–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL33292626114
ORL26343124115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home ORL
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 26 24 4 1
Khris Middleton S 32 19 2 7
P.J. Washington S 33 18 5 1
Cooper Flagg S 26 18 5 6
Daniel Gafford S 25 12 13 1
Naji Marshall 25 6 4 5
Max Christie S 28 6 3 3
Ryan Nembhard 14 6 2 4
Caleb Martin 11 3 2 0
Dwight Powell 20 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan da Silva 25 19 3 3
Jalen Suggs S 31 17 2 7
Paolo Banchero S 36 16 12 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 15 7 1
Desmond Bane S 38 14 8 3
Anthony Black S 24 8 3 3
Goga Bitadze 12 8 4 2
Jevon Carter 19 8 2 4
Moritz Wagner 12 6 2 2
Noah Penda 20 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 23-foot three pointer (Cooper Flagg assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
8%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
5 Anthony Black ORL
8%
6 Brandon Williams DAL
8%
7 Max Christie DAL
7%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
30%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.1 7.9 6.5
2 Desmond Bane ORL 25.1 3.9 4.2
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.0 7.1 3.7
4 Naji Marshall DAL 19.9 4.9 4.0
5 Brandon Williams DAL 16.3 4.0 4.7
6 Anthony Black ORL 15.7 4.1 3.5
7 P.J. Washington DAL 14.9 6.0 2.2
8 Max Christie DAL 13.3 3.9 2.3
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.2 4.5 6.4
10 Khris Middleton DAL 12.6 4.0 2.8
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 8.7 2.0
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.2 4.7 1.9
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.7 6.1 1.4
14 Klay Thompson DAL 8.6 1.8 1.4
15 Caleb Martin DAL 8.5 2.9 1.4
16 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 3.2 1.3
17 Jevon Carter ORL 7.0 3.0 2.2
18 AJ Johnson DAL 5.8 1.6 1.7
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 5.1 0.8
20 Jett Howard ORL 5.1 2.1 1.1
21 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.1 1.8 3.5
22 Noah Penda ORL 4.4 2.7 1.1
23 Dwight Powell DAL 4.3 2.9 0.8
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.3 1.4 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.