NBA games

IND @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
107130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25262630107
LAC42213928130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home LAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 29 5 1
Jay Huff S 25 18 5 1
Jarace Walker S 31 17 5 5
Quenton Jackson 18 11 1 3
Micah Potter 24 10 6 0
T.J. McConnell 16 6 3 5
Andrew Nembhard S 24 5 4 5
Kobe Brown 22 5 2 2
Ben Sheppard 20 4 1 1
Aaron Nesmith S 20 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 23 29 8 2
Bennedict Mathurin 22 23 8 4
Brook Lopez S 21 17 3 2
Darius Garland 24 12 4 8
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 12 2 0
Isaiah Jackson 18 10 4 2
Kobe Sanders S 21 6 0 2
Kris Dunn S 23 6 6 3
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 8 6 4 0
Jordan Miller 27 4 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jay Huff · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jay Huff makes 3-foot driving dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
4 Jarace Walker IND
9%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
6 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
9 Jay Huff IND
7%
10 Kam Jones IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
35%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.7 6.0 4.6
2 Darius Garland LAC 21.6 3.0 7.2
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 21.1 6.4 3.8
4 Pascal Siakam IND 20.8 4.7 3.2
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.5 3.2 6.9
6 Jarace Walker IND 19.3 7.6 4.0
7 Micah Potter IND 13.3 5.7 2.0
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.5 3.9 1.8
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.6 3.0 2.0
10 Kris Dunn LAC 11.5 4.3 5.9
11 Brook Lopez LAC 11.2 5.2 2.0
12 Jay Huff IND 11.2 4.5 1.7
13 Quenton Jackson IND 10.8 2.9 2.4
14 Jordan Miller LAC 9.8 3.0 2.7
15 Ben Sheppard IND 9.3 3.2 2.0
16 Kobe Brown IND 9.1 4.5 1.4
17 Kam Jones IND 8.4 2.2 3.6
18 T.J. McConnell IND 7.8 2.0 4.0
19 Obi Toppin IND 7.5 3.5 2.0
20 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.4 2.7 2.0
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 6.2 5.2 0.8
22 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.8 2.1 1.8
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.2 2.4 1.5
24 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.8 1.4 1.9
25 Cam Christie LAC 3.3 1.6 0.7
26 Isaiah Jackson LAC 3.2 3.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.