NBA games

ATL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
131–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25413233131
MIL38331824113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIL
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 23 1 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 21 8 1
Jalen Johnson S 34 20 5 9
CJ McCollum S 29 18 2 8
Dyson Daniels S 34 14 10 3
Zaccharie Risacher 21 12 5 0
Mouhamed Gueye 14 8 5 0
Jock Landale 16 8 1 3
Corey Kispert 20 7 1 7
Keaton Wallace 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 26 24 5 4
Kyle Kuzma 22 16 2 2
Ousmane Dieng S 28 14 4 0
Ryan Rollins S 35 13 8 12
Bobby Portis 24 13 4 3
Cam Thomas 18 11 2 3
Myles Turner S 22 8 3 0
AJ Green S 24 7 0 0
Jericho Sims 23 4 11 3
Pete Nance 14 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 AJ Green MIL
17%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
6 CJ McCollum ATL
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
6%
10 Ousmane Dieng MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
69%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
12%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.2 10.6 5.5
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 19.9 4.6 5.2
3 CJ McCollum ATL 19.5 3.7 4.0
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.4 4.2 5.7
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.7 7.8 5.1
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.1 7.2 3.0
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.8 4.2 2.9
8 Cam Thomas MIL 11.8 2.6 1.9
9 Bobby Portis MIL 11.5 4.5 1.3
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.2 5.9 5.4
11 Corey Kispert ATL 10.8 3.3 1.7
12 Myles Turner MIL 10.7 6.0 1.6
13 Jock Landale ATL 9.9 4.8 1.5
14 AJ Green MIL 9.0 2.6 1.8
15 Jericho Sims MIL 7.8 7.6 1.8
16 Ousmane Dieng MIL 7.8 3.4 1.7
17 Buddy Hield ATL 7.6 2.2 1.4
18 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 7.5 4.7 1.2
19 Pete Nance MIL 5.4 2.1 1.0
20 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.2 1.2 0.7
21 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.1 1.4 1.6
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.0 3.7 0.7
23 Christian Koloko ATL 3.4 3.6 0.5
24 Gary Harris MIL 3.2 1.5 1.1
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.8 1.1 0.6
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 1.7 0.7
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.4 1.1 0.7
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.