NBA games

POR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
122–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32273429122
MEM28313025114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MEM
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 32 35 5 11
Jerami Grant S 36 30 9 4
Robert Williams III 23 20 11 0
Toumani Camara S 40 9 7 3
Scoot Henderson S 24 8 1 3
Donovan Clingan S 12 7 9 1
Blake Wesley 16 6 0 2
Sidy Cissoko 22 4 2 1
Vit Krejci 21 3 6 3
Matisse Thybulle 13 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Wells S 31 24 3 2
GG Jackson S 34 20 4 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 33 17 9 1
Jahmai Mashack 21 13 1 1
Cam Spencer 28 12 7 7
Walter Clayton Jr. 27 12 2 8
Javon Small S 33 11 7 5
Rayan Rupert S 32 5 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
10%
2 GG Jackson MEM
10%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
4 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
5 Ty Jerome MEM
9%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
7 Deni Avdija POR
8%
8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
8%
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
34%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jrue Holiday POR 22.2 4.8 5.9
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.3 3.8 3.3
3 Ty Jerome MEM 19.9 3.4 5.3
4 Jerami Grant POR 18.2 4.0 2.2
5 GG Jackson MEM 17.2 7.0 2.4
6 Donovan Clingan POR 16.7 11.1 3.5
7 Scoot Henderson POR 14.4 3.6 5.1
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.4 3.3 2.2
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 13.9 4.6 2.1
10 Deni Avdija POR 13.8 5.0 4.8
11 Toumani Camara POR 13.6 5.2 2.5
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.6 2.9 5.1
13 Javon Small MEM 12.5 4.4 3.7
14 Cedric Coward MEM 11.7 4.7 3.5
15 Cam Spencer MEM 10.0 2.8 4.7
16 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 9.3 2.8 5.6
17 Vit Krejci POR 8.7 2.9 1.8
18 Jahmai Mashack MEM 8.1 3.1 1.8
19 Robert Williams III POR 8.0 7.6 1.5
20 Rayan Rupert MEM 7.2 3.6 1.4
21 Kris Murray POR 6.8 3.1 1.4
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.2 2.9 1.6
23 Blake Wesley POR 4.9 1.4 1.8
24 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.7 2.0 0.9
25 Chris Youngblood POR 2.5 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.