NBA games

CHA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA35292727118
BOS2320252189

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BOS
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 31 20 4 0
LaMelo Ball S 23 18 7 4
Brandon Miller S 27 18 5 2
Coby White 20 17 1 6
Miles Bridges S 31 9 3 2
Moussa Diabate S 29 9 9 6
Sion James 17 6 4 3
Josh Green 21 6 3 1
Pat Connaughton 14 6 2 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner 14 6 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 29 29 2 3
Jaylen Brown S 34 20 11 7
Baylor Scheierman S 32 9 4 5
Luka Garza 15 9 2 0
Hugo Gonzalez 25 8 6 1
Nikola Vucevic 17 7 4 1
Sam Hauser S 25 3 7 1
Jordan Walsh 16 2 5 0
Neemias Queta S 16 2 2 0
Payton Pritchard 24 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moussa Diabate · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Moussa Diabate makes 3-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
15%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
7%
8 Hugo Gonzalez BOS
7%
9 Nikola Vucevic BOS
6%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
19%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 21.6 5.6 3.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.2 6.0 5.2
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.1 4.1 6.8
4 Coby White CHA 18.6 3.7 4.8
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.4 3.6 6.0
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 17.8 5.4 3.7
7 Derrick White BOS 16.5 4.5 6.2
8 Miles Bridges CHA 14.3 5.4 3.6
9 Nikola Vucevic BOS 11.9 7.4 1.9
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.3 9.1 1.4
11 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.8 5.5 2.0
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.7 3.5 1.7
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.2 8.5 2.7
14 Josh Green CHA 6.7 2.4 1.0
15 Sion James CHA 6.0 3.2 2.2
16 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.9 5.8 1.2
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.4 3.7 0.7
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.1 3.4 0.8
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.7 2.4 0.9
20 Luka Garza BOS 4.4 2.7 0.7
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.2 1.7 1.1
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.7 1.8 0.8
23 Amari Williams BOS 2.8 2.5 0.6
24 Antonio Reeves CHA 1.9 0.6 0.3
25 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.