NBA games

OKC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
103–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC25252726103
NY23174020100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NY
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 32 28 8 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 26 3 8
Luguentz Dort S 33 16 4 1
Jaylin Williams 18 8 5 2
Aaron Wiggins 18 6 2 0
Jared McCain 15 5 1 1
Cason Wallace S 29 4 4 3
Isaiah Joe 24 4 2 1
Kenrich Williams 6 3 0 0
Alex Caruso 12 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 17 17 1
OG Anunoby S 38 16 3 0
Jalen Brunson S 39 16 3 15
Mikal Bridges S 40 15 4 0
Landry Shamet 31 14 3 2
Josh Hart S 25 10 12 3
Mohamed Diawara 13 9 3 0
Jose Alvarado 12 3 0 2
Ariel Hukporti 9 0 3 0
Jeremy Sochan 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Chet Holmgren OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
9%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.4 5.1 7.9
2 Jalen Brunson NY 19.0 3.6 5.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.4 8.8 2.8
4 Mikal Bridges NY 16.3 4.3 3.4
5 OG Anunoby NY 15.0 4.7 2.1
6 Cason Wallace OKC 13.6 4.1 5.4
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.0 3.2 1.7
8 Josh Hart NY 12.6 6.8 5.6
9 Chet Holmgren OKC 11.2 8.6 1.8
10 Jared McCain OKC 11.2 3.1 1.4
11 Landry Shamet NY 10.8 2.3 1.8
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 10.4 5.8 2.7
13 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.8 7.1 4.5
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.0 3.3 1.7
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.6 3.3 1.9
16 Jose Alvarado NY 8.2 2.8 3.7
17 Alex Caruso OKC 7.8 2.4 1.7
18 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.6 2.5 1.0
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.6 1.0
20 Tyler Kolek NY 4.0 1.5 2.1
21 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.8 1.1 0.9
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 2.9 0.6
23 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.9 1.7 0.7
24 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 2.8 1.4 0.8
25 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.5 1.6 0.6
26 Trey Jemison III NY 1.6 1.4 0.4
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.