NBA games

NO @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
101–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO33182723101
LAL31232234110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 24 4 0
Trey Murphy III S 33 21 8 4
Saddiq Bey S 36 18 5 3
Dejounte Murray S 28 15 8 8
DeAndre Jordan 16 6 6 2
Bryce McGowens 16 6 1 1
Jeremiah Fears 19 5 0 2
Herbert Jones S 33 2 6 5
Yves Missi 6 2 1 0
Derik Queen 19 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 27 10 7
LeBron James S 33 21 7 7
Austin Reaves S 37 15 8 3
Deandre Ayton S 25 13 8 1
Marcus Smart S 30 10 3 7
Luke Kennard 21 9 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 23 8 6 1
Jake LaRavia 14 5 2 2
Rui Hachimura 19 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
10%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 LeBron James LAL
9%
7 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
8 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
10 DeAndre Jordan NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
11%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 25.9 6.3 7.2
2 Saddiq Bey NO 22.5 5.5 3.9
3 Zion Williamson NO 21.7 5.4 4.0
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.2 4.3 4.6
5 Trey Murphy III NO 21.2 4.2 5.2
6 Dejounte Murray NO 19.6 4.3 6.7
7 LeBron James LAL 17.8 4.8 5.8
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.2 4.8 4.9
9 Derik Queen NO 12.0 6.6 2.4
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.7 3.2 1.2
11 Luke Kennard LAL 10.5 2.8 2.1
12 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.2 7.4 1.1
13 Marcus Smart LAL 10.1 3.0 2.8
14 Bryce McGowens NO 9.9 2.5 1.8
15 Herbert Jones NO 9.2 3.5 3.6
16 Jordan Poole NO 8.9 3.0 2.3
17 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.5 3.8 1.6
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.0 4.3 1.2
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.8 4.5 1.4
20 Yves Missi NO 6.3 5.9 1.1
21 DeAndre Jordan NO 5.0 6.2 0.7
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.6 3.5 1.0
23 Kobe Bufkin LAL 4.3 1.6 0.8
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 4.1 2.8 0.8
25 Bronny James LAL 3.8 1.2 1.2
26 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.3 1.6 0.8
27 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.3 1.5 0.6
28 Kevon Looney NO 3.0 5.2 0.9
29 Adou Thiero LAL 2.9 2.0 0.7
30 Micah Peavy NO 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.