NBA games

MEM @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
110–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32302028110
MIN23343228117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIN
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Wells S 28 19 1 0
Cedric Coward 21 15 2 1
Ty Jerome S 24 14 4 2
Rayan Rupert 25 13 6 1
GG Jackson S 23 12 11 0
Cam Spencer 24 10 2 4
Walter Clayton Jr. 24 9 1 9
Taylor Hendricks 24 8 1 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 24 8 3 5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 24 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 41 6 2
Julius Randle S 36 23 11 4
Jaden McDaniels S 32 16 7 1
Ayo Dosunmu 29 14 3 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 7 4 6
Bones Hyland 12 6 2 0
Rudy Gobert S 26 5 12 1
Naz Reid 23 3 6 1
Kyle Anderson 14 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
GG Jackson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"GG Jackson makes running dunk (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
3 Julius Randle MIN
8%
4 Ty Jerome MEM
8%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
6 GG Jackson MEM
8%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
7%
9 Joan Beringer MIN
6%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
37%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.6 4.9 3.9
2 Julius Randle MIN 21.0 6.9 5.7
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.1 5.1 3.3
4 Ty Jerome MEM 16.9 2.9 5.0
5 GG Jackson MEM 16.6 6.0 2.4
6 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 13.7 4.7 1.7
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.6 3.4 2.1
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.2 2.8 4.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.9 11.8 2.1
10 Naz Reid MIN 12.7 6.4 2.5
11 Santi Aldama MEM 12.7 5.8 2.2
12 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 12.6 3.0 3.3
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.1 3.8 4.8
14 Cedric Coward MEM 11.4 4.1 2.7
15 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.6 4.8 1.6
16 Cam Spencer MEM 10.1 2.7 4.6
17 Bones Hyland MIN 8.6 2.8 2.6
18 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 7.9 2.5 4.8
19 Rayan Rupert MEM 6.3 3.1 1.2
20 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.9 2.6 1.7
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.6 0.9 0.5
22 Mike Conley MIN 3.1 1.8 1.9
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.8 1.2 0.5
24 Joan Beringer MIN 2.6 1.9 0.4
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.3 0.8 0.4
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.