NBA games

OKC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
116–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC26293229116
CHI22322232108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CHI
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain 25 20 3 1
Isaiah Joe S 30 19 2 0
Aaron Wiggins S 34 18 7 4
Cason Wallace S 29 17 1 5
Jaylin Williams 33 17 16 6
Chet Holmgren S 26 12 11 2
Alex Caruso 19 8 4 1
Luguentz Dort S 28 4 5 2
Kenrich Williams 15 1 2 2
Brooks Barnhizer 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 28 20 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 29 18 12 2
Tre Jones S 26 15 2 2
Josh Giddey S 33 14 9 9
Nick Richards 23 12 13 0
Matas Buzelis S 20 11 5 3
Leonard Miller 21 8 3 0
Rob Dillingham 24 6 5 5
Isaac Okoro S 32 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
13%
2 Luguentz Dort OKC
12%
3 Cason Wallace OKC
12%
4 Isaac Okoro CHI
12%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
6 Tre Jones CHI
11%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
8 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
9 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
8%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
28%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Matas Buzelis CHI 18.3 6.1 2.8
2 Cason Wallace OKC 15.1 4.6 6.0
3 Josh Giddey CHI 15.1 5.7 6.5
4 Isaiah Joe OKC 14.8 3.4 2.2
5 Collin Sexton CHI 12.6 2.7 1.9
6 Tre Jones CHI 12.0 3.4 5.5
7 Isaac Okoro CHI 11.9 3.5 2.0
8 Chet Holmgren OKC 11.4 8.3 2.1
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.6 7.7 5.1
10 Jared McCain OKC 10.5 3.1 1.5
11 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.3 5.5 2.2
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.7 4.7 2.5
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.2 2.0
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.0 2.9 2.0
15 Nick Richards CHI 8.9 6.2 1.0
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.0 3.2 1.2
17 Alex Caruso OKC 7.2 2.1 2.0
18 Rob Dillingham CHI 6.6 2.4 3.1
19 Yuki Kawamura CHI 5.1 2.9 3.8
20 Leonard Miller CHI 4.4 2.1 0.9
21 Mac McClung CHI 3.6 0.9 0.5
22 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.3 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.