NBA games

SA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
131–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32463518131
PHI2528112791

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHI
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper 22 22 2 2
Devin Vassell S 23 22 5 1
Stephon Castle S 21 15 4 10
Keldon Johnson 22 12 9 0
De'Aaron Fox S 21 11 5 7
Carter Bryant 26 11 9 3
Julian Champagnie S 22 10 7 2
Victor Wembanyama S 24 10 8 4
Lindy Waters III 12 8 0 1
Bismack Biyombo 12 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 25 21 8 2
Jabari Walker 19 20 7 0
Cameron Payne 26 10 2 2
Trendon Watford 26 9 2 3
Justin Edwards 26 9 1 3
Adem Bona 22 6 6 2
VJ Edgecombe S 20 6 4 1
Dalen Terry 16 4 3 2
Quentin Grimes S 22 2 2 1
Andre Drummond S 5 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
18%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
15%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
12%
4 Stephon Castle SA
12%
5 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
8 De'Aaron Fox SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Kelly Olynyk SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
37%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.6 3.9 5.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.3 10.6 3.5
3 Stephon Castle SA 19.8 5.2 6.5
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.4 6.7 2.9
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.3 4.4 3.3
6 Dylan Harper SA 12.7 4.3 4.7
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 12.1 2.6 4.7
8 Quentin Grimes PHI 11.4 2.8 2.7
9 Julian Champagnie SA 9.7 4.2 1.8
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.4 4.3 1.2
11 Keldon Johnson SA 9.3 3.4 1.4
12 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 7.3 1.8
13 Trendon Watford PHI 6.7 3.6 2.0
14 Adem Bona PHI 5.7 4.7 0.9
15 Luke Kornet SA 5.6 5.7 1.4
16 Carter Bryant SA 5.3 3.0 1.0
17 Cameron Payne PHI 4.9 1.3 1.7
18 Tyrese Martin PHI 4.1 1.5 0.5
19 Dalen Terry PHI 3.6 2.0 1.3
20 Justin Edwards PHI 3.4 1.1 0.5
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.5 0.7
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 1.3 0.9
23 Lindy Waters III SA 3.1 1.0 0.8
24 Jabari Walker PHI 2.4 1.3 0.5
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 1.4 0.6
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.7 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.