NBA games

NY @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
111–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32361924111
TOR3127241395

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home TOR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 26 2 10
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 21 12 6
OG Anunoby S 27 15 5 0
Josh Hart S 31 12 7 7
Landry Shamet 24 12 0 0
Mikal Bridges S 32 11 2 4
Mohamed Diawara 19 8 2 0
Jose Alvarado 17 4 1 5
Mitchell Robinson 20 2 10 0
Ariel Hukporti 1 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 31 2 4
RJ Barrett S 37 20 4 3
Scottie Barnes S 36 14 4 1
Immanuel Quickley S 33 13 3 12
Jakob Poeltl S 30 9 7 0
Jamal Shead 24 4 3 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 4 4 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 1 0 0 0
Jamison Battle 5 0 0 0
Jonathan Mogbo 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 OG Anunoby NY
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.4 3.4 5.7
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 18.8 4.7 3.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.0 8.8 2.3
4 RJ Barrett TOR 17.2 5.8 3.6
5 Jalen Brunson NY 17.0 3.8 4.7
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.6 4.3 3.2
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.1 4.8 2.2
8 Scottie Barnes TOR 14.0 6.1 3.9
9 Josh Hart NY 11.2 6.3 5.2
10 Landry Shamet NY 9.9 2.2 2.0
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.1 3.6 1.2
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.9 5.8 1.4
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.1 3.2 1.6
14 Jose Alvarado NY 7.8 3.0 3.1
15 Jamal Shead TOR 7.4 2.3 3.9
16 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.1 2.2 0.9
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.7 6.7 0.8
18 Tyler Kolek NY 4.7 1.6 2.4
19 Jordan Clarkson NY 4.1 1.3 1.0
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.4 3.4 0.6
21 Gradey Dick TOR 3.0 1.8 0.5
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.9 2.1 0.6
23 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 2.7 1.5 1.2
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.6 2.1 0.6
25 Jamison Battle TOR 2.5 1.2 0.5
26 A.J. Lawson TOR 2.4 1.2 0.4
27 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.3 1.5 0.5
28 Alijah Martin TOR 2.0 1.2 0.5
29 Garrett Temple TOR 1.0 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.