NBA games

BKN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
98–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2826212398
MIA34352233124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIA
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Noah Clowney S 27 17 7 0
Ziaire Williams 23 16 1 2
Nolan Traore S 23 14 2 0
Danny Wolf 21 11 5 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 10 8 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 27 9 3 3
Terance Mann S 27 8 3 2
Ben Saraf 25 6 1 4
Nic Claxton S 28 4 5 3
Grant Nelson 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 35 23 9 4
Tyler Herro S 28 22 3 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 20 5 4
Andrew Wiggins S 27 13 7 4
Simone Fontecchio 20 12 3 1
Kel'el Ware 29 11 13 1
Kasparas Jakucionis 22 9 1 5
Davion Mitchell S 26 8 3 4
Myron Gardner 4 3 0 0
Pelle Larsson S 18 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
10%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Pelle Larsson MIA
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Norman Powell MIA
8%
6 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN
8%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
10 Nolan Traore BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.0 9.6 3.6
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.9 4.3 4.6
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 21.0 5.9 3.4
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 18.0 5.5 2.8
5 Norman Powell MIA 16.1 3.1 2.3
6 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.3 4.7 4.4
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.0 5.4 4.3
8 Nolan Traore BKN 14.4 2.9 5.9
9 Nic Claxton BKN 13.5 6.3 3.2
10 Danny Wolf BKN 12.5 5.4 3.2
11 Noah Clowney BKN 11.3 3.5 1.4
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.3 9.4 1.0
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.2 2.8 5.5
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.0 7.4 2.8
15 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.6 2.6 1.9
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.2 2.8 3.0
17 Terance Mann BKN 7.1 2.4 2.1
18 Ben Saraf BKN 5.9 1.8 2.6
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.8 2.7 1.4
20 Myron Gardner MIA 4.8 4.0 1.2
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.6 2.1 0.7
22 Dru Smith MIA 4.0 2.2 2.0
23 Josh Minott BKN 3.9 1.6 0.7
24 Ochai Agbaji BKN 3.7 1.8 0.8
25 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.4 1.6 0.7
26 Jahmir Young MIA 3.1 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.