NBA games

WSH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
109–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24302728109
ORL27304029126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ORL
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley S 33 19 3 5
Jaden Hardy 22 18 2 1
Sharife Cooper 20 16 3 3
Justin Champagnie 23 13 8 1
Bub Carrington S 32 11 3 5
Julian Reese S 33 9 8 3
Tre Johnson S 24 9 0 1
Leaky Black 31 8 9 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 6 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 32 37 5 6
Desmond Bane S 33 25 2 4
Jett Howard 14 12 1 2
Jevon Carter 30 10 3 6
Jalen Suggs S 26 10 3 9
Moritz Wagner 16 10 3 0
Goga Bitadze S 21 9 6 2
Tristan da Silva S 27 8 9 1
Noah Penda 19 5 5 1
Jamal Cain 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Goga Bitadze assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
17%
2 Bub Carrington WSH
14%
3 Tre Johnson WSH
14%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
13%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
7 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
10%
9 Will Riley WSH
0%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
26%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane ORL 25.4 4.2 4.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.8 8.1 6.3
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.9 4.8 6.3
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.3 4.1 2.7
5 Will Riley WSH 12.7 3.6 2.1
6 Jamir Watkins WSH 11.1 3.8 1.5
7 Kyshawn George WSH 10.6 3.0 1.9
8 Sharife Cooper WSH 10.2 2.7 3.3
9 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.1 5.3 1.3
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.0 4.3 1.9
11 Bub Carrington WSH 9.8 4.0 4.3
12 Tre Johnson WSH 9.6 3.1 1.7
13 Anthony Gill WSH 9.1 4.2 2.4
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.9 3.5 1.3
15 Jaden Hardy WSH 8.0 2.0 1.0
16 Jevon Carter ORL 6.4 2.8 1.8
17 Jett Howard ORL 5.2 2.3 1.0
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.2 4.3 0.5
19 Jase Richardson ORL 3.7 1.4 1.0
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.9 3.0 0.9
21 Noah Penda ORL 2.9 1.8 0.8
22 Jamal Cain ORL 2.7 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.