NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27213229109
CLE25293524113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 27 24 14 1
Tobias Harris S 31 19 5 0
Ausar Thompson S 31 16 6 6
Javonte Green 13 13 1 0
Cade Cunningham S 39 10 6 14
Duncan Robinson S 34 8 2 3
Ronald Holland II 19 8 5 1
Daniss Jenkins 11 5 1 1
Isaiah Stewart 22 4 2 2
Caris LeVert 13 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylon Tyson S 32 22 3 4
Evan Mobley S 32 18 5 4
James Harden S 35 18 5 7
Dennis Schroder 28 15 5 5
Thomas Bryant 16 9 5 0
Sam Merrill S 27 9 0 2
Jarrett Allen S 21 8 3 0
Craig Porter Jr. 22 7 8 3
Keon Ellis 27 7 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylon Tyson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Jaylon Tyson makes running layup (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 James Harden CLE
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE
7%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
6%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
14%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 22.6 6.0 8.5
2 James Harden CLE 21.1 4.8 8.7
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 21.1 10.4 2.0
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.1 9.1 2.6
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.0 8.6 1.6
6 Tobias Harris DET 12.4 6.8 2.0
7 Duncan Robinson DET 11.8 2.9 2.2
8 Sam Merrill CLE 11.1 2.6 2.0
9 Dennis Schroder CLE 11.0 2.6 4.7
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.0 4.3 1.6
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.3 6.3 3.8
12 Paul Reed DET 10.2 6.1 1.3
13 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 4.6 1.5
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.5 2.8 1.0
15 Caris LeVert DET 7.0 2.2 2.3
16 Keon Ellis CLE 6.8 3.2 1.8
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.6 3.6 1.0
18 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.5 2.2 1.2
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.4 2.5 4.5
20 Kevin Huerter DET 5.0 2.9 1.4
21 Javonte Green DET 5.0 2.9 0.8
22 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.0 2.2 0.7
23 Marcus Sasser DET 3.6 0.8 1.5
24 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.6 0.7 1.5
25 Riley Minix CLE 3.3 1.4 1.1
26 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.8 1.9 0.6
27 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.0 0.8 0.3
28 Chaz Lanier DET 2.0 0.7 0.4
29 Bobi Klintman DET 1.9 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.