NBA games

DAL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
90–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2325241890
CHA31263525117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CHA
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Williams S 27 18 4 1
P.J. Washington S 28 13 2 3
Dwight Powell 26 12 4 3
Max Christie S 33 11 5 1
Daniel Gafford S 22 10 6 2
Khris Middleton S 29 9 8 3
Caleb Martin 26 9 1 0
Ryan Nembhard 21 6 5 4
AJ Johnson 13 2 2 0
John Poulakidas 14 0 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 21 17 5 4
LaMelo Ball S 29 15 5 9
Sion James 24 13 8 1
Kon Knueppel S 32 13 6 5
Grant Williams 21 12 4 3
Miles Bridges S 31 11 3 5
Josh Green 25 11 3 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 18 10 5 3
Pat Connaughton 10 8 2 0
Moussa Diabate S 23 7 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Max Christie makes driving layup (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
8 Brandon Williams DAL
7%
9 Max Christie DAL
7%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
19%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.5 5.2 4.6
2 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.8 5.4 3.7
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.7 4.4 6.9
4 Naji Marshall DAL 20.1 4.9 4.0
5 Miles Bridges CHA 16.6 5.9 4.0
6 Brandon Williams DAL 15.6 3.4 4.6
7 Max Christie DAL 13.3 3.9 2.4
8 P.J. Washington DAL 13.3 6.0 1.8
9 Khris Middleton DAL 13.1 3.5 2.9
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 11.0 10.4 3.2
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.2 6.4 1.2
12 Grant Williams CHA 9.0 4.6 2.3
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.0 2.0 1.4
14 Caleb Martin DAL 8.0 3.1 1.7
15 Josh Green CHA 6.7 2.5 1.2
16 AJ Johnson DAL 6.3 1.9 1.7
17 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.0 6.2 1.2
18 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.4 1.7 3.4
19 Sion James CHA 5.1 2.9 2.2
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.8 3.2 0.6
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.7 2.1 1.5
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.6 2.8 0.6
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.2 1.6 0.9
24 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.5 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.