NBA games

LAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC19233537114
GS31252322101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home GS
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 23 8 4
Bennedict Mathurin 31 17 7 0
Kris Dunn S 26 16 7 7
Jordan Miller 25 12 6 0
Darius Garland 23 12 2 2
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 21 11 9 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 9 6 1
Kobe Sanders S 22 8 2 1
Brook Lopez S 24 6 4 2
Norchad Omier 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 37 22 7 3
Nate Williams 22 18 2 2
Al Horford S 27 17 6 3
Moses Moody S 25 10 3 1
Quinten Post 12 9 3 1
Pat Spencer 21 9 2 5
De'Anthony Melton S 27 7 4 2
Gui Santos 31 5 10 3
Draymond Green S 31 4 2 6
Malevy Leons 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Moses Moody makes driving layup (Al Horford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
2 Darius Garland LAC
12%
3 Gui Santos GS
12%
4 De'Anthony Melton GS
11%
5 Draymond Green GS
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
43%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.2 6.2 3.8
2 Darius Garland LAC 21.1 2.8 6.9
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.7 6.3 3.7
4 Gui Santos GS 16.6 5.6 4.2
5 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.8 3.4 3.3
6 Moses Moody GS 15.3 3.9 2.4
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.1 6.7 4.5
8 Kristaps Porzingis GS 13.6 3.8 1.7
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.0 3.7 1.6
10 Pat Spencer GS 11.2 3.2 5.0
11 Brook Lopez LAC 10.9 5.1 1.8
12 Al Horford GS 10.8 5.0 2.8
13 Kris Dunn LAC 10.5 3.9 5.5
14 Gary Payton II GS 10.1 3.3 2.0
15 Jordan Miller LAC 10.0 2.7 2.8
16 Draymond Green GS 9.9 5.2 4.5
17 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.7 2.7 2.1
18 Will Richard GS 6.5 2.6 1.5
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 6.0 4.8 0.8
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.7 2.0 1.7
21 Quinten Post GS 5.7 3.8 1.3
22 Nate Williams GS 5.3 2.2 1.0
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.5 3.1 1.6
24 Malevy Leons GS 4.2 2.5 0.7
25 Isaiah Jackson LAC 3.5 3.8 0.8
26 Cam Christie LAC 3.2 1.6 0.7
27 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.7 0.8 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.