NBA games

DEN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
128–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN33333428128
UTAH34332632125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home UTAH
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 38 45 2 8
Nikola Jokic S 36 22 12 5
Julian Strawther S 29 15 1 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 17 13 6 1
Christian Braun S 32 11 6 4
Jalen Pickett 19 8 1 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 7 6 1
Bruce Brown 32 4 3 4
Zeke Nnaji 6 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 30 36 2 2
Kyle Filipowski S 29 19 8 6
Ace Bailey S 32 18 4 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 26 15 3 2
Isaiah Collier 20 10 2 6
Oscar Tshiebwe 18 8 8 1
Brice Sensabaugh 23 8 3 2
John Konchar 23 6 2 1
Cody Williams S 11 3 1 1
Elijah Harkless S 27 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Ace Bailey UTAH
13%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
5 Julian Strawther DEN
11%
6 Cody Williams UTAH
11%
7 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
9%
8 Christian Braun DEN
9%
9 Blake Hinson UTAH
8%
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
28%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.1 13.2 10.6
2 Keyonte George UTAH 23.4 3.3 5.4
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH 20.4 4.4 10.0
4 Jamal Murray DEN 19.9 4.8 5.8
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 17.2 3.4 2.2
6 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.8 6.0 2.3
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 15.1 3.2 1.6
8 Christian Braun DEN 14.8 6.0 3.6
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 14.2 7.9 2.9
10 Julian Strawther DEN 12.2 3.4 1.8
11 Bruce Brown DEN 10.5 3.9 2.6
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.9 1.9 1.3
13 Blake Hinson UTAH 7.8 2.7 0.9
14 Cody Williams UTAH 6.9 3.7 1.6
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.5 4.4 1.0
16 John Konchar UTAH 6.3 4.0 1.9
17 KJ Simpson DEN 6.3 2.2 2.6
18 Spencer Jones DEN 6.1 3.7 1.0
19 Elijah Harkless UTAH 5.0 1.4 1.7
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.8 2.1 1.7
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.3 1.8 0.7
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.6 3.6 0.7
23 Mo Bamba UTAH 3.4 1.8 0.7
24 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 3.2 3.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.