NBA games

BOS @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
108–81
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30272625108
MIL2023221681

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIL
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 34 25 4 9
Derrick White S 34 18 1 9
Hugo Gonzalez S 35 18 16 1
Sam Hauser S 29 14 4 1
Baylor Scheierman S 25 10 6 1
Nikola Vucevic S 26 10 5 7
Luka Garza 20 7 10 1
Ron Harper Jr. 15 6 1 0
Max Shulga 2 0 0 0
Amari Williams 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 25 19 11 2
Ousmane Dieng S 30 13 1 2
Bobby Portis 23 12 1 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 31 8 4 2
Pete Nance 15 6 3 0
Gary Harris 13 6 1 1
Ryan Rollins 24 5 3 2
Myles Turner S 19 5 4 3
Jericho Sims 22 3 6 2
Gary Trent Jr. 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ousmane Dieng · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Ousmane Dieng makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
28%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
5 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
7 Baylor Scheierman BOS
7%
8 AJ Green MIL
7%
9 Myles Turner MIL
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
10%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.3 10.1 5.6
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 21.7 5.8 7.2
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 21.6 4.9 5.6
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.9 3.6 6.2
5 Derrick White BOS 18.4 4.4 6.4
6 Nikola Vucevic BOS 12.4 7.4 1.7
7 Cam Thomas MIL 12.2 2.3 2.0
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.2 4.1 2.9
9 Bobby Portis MIL 11.7 4.7 1.3
10 Myles Turner MIL 11.3 5.7 1.5
11 Neemias Queta BOS 10.5 9.3 1.5
12 Baylor Scheierman BOS 10.3 5.8 2.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.6 3.4 1.8
14 AJ Green MIL 9.3 2.5 1.9
15 Jericho Sims MIL 7.5 7.7 1.8
16 Ousmane Dieng MIL 6.7 3.1 1.5
17 Pete Nance MIL 5.9 2.2 1.1
18 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.7 1.1 0.8
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.3 3.0 0.8
20 Luka Garza BOS 4.3 2.2 0.7
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.3 2.3 0.9
22 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.3 2.8 0.6
23 Gary Harris MIL 2.9 1.2 1.0
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 1.6 0.6
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.2 0.5
26 John Tonje BOS 2.2 1.3 0.5
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.9 2.1 0.4
28 Max Shulga BOS 1.4 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.