NBA games

HOU @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
123–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU26343429123
WSH30212938118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home WSH
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 38 32 13 2
Kevin Durant S 37 30 7 1
Amen Thompson S 31 22 12 4
Reed Sheppard S 42 19 7 10
Tari Eason S 25 9 6 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 27 5 6 1
Clint Capela 11 4 8 1
Aaron Holiday 20 2 0 0
Josh Okogie 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 27 23 1 0
Sharife Cooper 17 21 2 3
Kyshawn George S 22 16 1 2
Jaden Hardy 18 14 4 1
Justin Champagnie 27 12 2 2
Bub Carrington S 28 11 5 4
Will Riley 33 7 1 1
Jamir Watkins 18 7 3 4
Tre Johnson S 22 5 4 3
Julian Reese S 28 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
3 Bub Carrington WSH
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
10%
6 Tari Eason HOU
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
8%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
25%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 22.7 5.2 4.9
2 Reed Sheppard HOU 17.6 4.1 4.0
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 16.5 7.3 5.8
4 Amen Thompson HOU 15.6 8.0 5.0
5 Will Riley WSH 14.4 4.0 2.4
6 Tre Johnson WSH 12.2 3.0 2.2
7 Tari Eason HOU 12.0 6.4 2.6
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.5 4.2 2.7
9 Kyshawn George WSH 11.0 3.3 2.5
10 Jamir Watkins WSH 11.0 4.0 1.4
11 Sharife Cooper WSH 10.7 3.0 3.5
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.0 3.7 4.5
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.8 5.4 1.2
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.4 3.8 1.7
15 Anthony Gill WSH 9.1 4.3 2.5
16 Jaden Hardy WSH 8.1 1.9 1.2
17 Josh Okogie HOU 5.5 2.2 0.8
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.0 2.5 1.1
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.5 1.2
20 Clint Capela HOU 4.0 4.1 0.7
21 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.0 2.1 0.9
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 1.5 0.7
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.7 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.