NBA games

SAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
104–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC18312728104
LAL36283232128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nique Clifford S 42 26 7 4
Maxime Raynaud S 34 16 13 1
Russell Westbrook S 22 14 4 5
Malik Monk 16 10 1 2
Drew Eubanks 14 10 2 1
DeMar DeRozan S 22 9 4 8
Precious Achiuwa S 27 8 9 1
Devin Carter 21 6 2 3
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 11 3 6 1
Daeqwon Plowden 25 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 29 28 5 9
LeBron James S 27 24 1 5
Deandre Ayton S 18 12 4 2
Austin Reaves S 27 12 0 5
Luke Kennard 26 11 1 5
Marcus Smart S 25 9 3 3
Rui Hachimura 22 8 2 0
Maxi Kleber 14 6 6 0
Jaxson Hayes 13 4 5 1
Jake LaRavia 22 4 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot turnaround jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
7 Luka Doncic LAL
7%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
10 Devin Carter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
14%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 26.6 6.9 7.7
2 Austin Reaves LAL 22.1 4.3 4.3
3 LeBron James LAL 18.2 5.0 6.4
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.4 3.2 4.6
5 Nique Clifford SAC 14.5 4.6 4.3
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC 14.4 3.0 3.5
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC 12.8 9.2 1.6
8 Malik Monk SAC 11.9 2.2 3.0
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.7 8.3 1.3
10 Devin Carter SAC 11.5 4.0 3.6
11 Precious Achiuwa SAC 10.7 6.5 1.6
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.5 3.1 1.2
13 Marcus Smart LAL 10.3 2.9 2.7
14 Luke Kennard LAL 9.9 3.0 1.9
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.7 3.2 1.7
16 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 9.4 3.3 1.3
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.8 4.0 1.2
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.2 3.6 1.0
19 Kobe Bufkin LAL 4.9 1.9 0.9
20 Killian Hayes SAC 4.3 1.1 2.3
21 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.7 2.4 0.9
22 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.4 2.5 0.7
23 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 3.4 1.5 0.9
24 Doug McDermott SAC 3.3 0.8 0.4
25 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.3 1.6 0.6
26 Bronny James LAL 2.9 0.7 0.9
27 Adou Thiero LAL 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.