NBA games

NO @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
117–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO32382423117
LAC43333130137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAC
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears 26 28 3 4
Derik Queen 29 19 5 2
Dejounte Murray S 22 17 5 5
Trey Murphy III S 31 16 2 3
Saddiq Bey S 29 14 6 2
Yves Missi 20 9 8 0
Bryce McGowens 26 6 1 2
Karlo Matkovic 14 4 5 3
DeAndre Jordan S 11 2 2 1
Herbert Jones S 21 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 23 3 5
Jordan Miller 32 19 2 8
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 17 2 0
Brook Lopez S 26 16 7 3
John Collins S 25 15 7 1
Bennedict Mathurin 25 9 5 1
Kobe Sanders 4 9 0 1
Kris Dunn S 22 9 3 4
Nicolas Batum 20 9 3 4
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 20 7 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"John Collins makes tip in dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin LAC
14%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
5 John Collins LAC
10%
6 Herbert Jones NO
8%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
8 DeAndre Jordan NO
6%
9 Brook Lopez LAC
6%
10 Bryce McGowens NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
19%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.2 6.3 3.7
2 Saddiq Bey NO 21.6 5.2 3.8
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 21.3 5.8 3.8
4 Trey Murphy III NO 20.9 3.7 4.7
5 John Collins LAC 16.0 6.6 1.7
6 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.0 4.6 4.5
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.2 3.7 1.7
8 Derik Queen NO 11.6 6.7 2.3
9 Brook Lopez LAC 10.8 4.6 1.7
10 Kris Dunn LAC 10.2 3.7 5.5
11 Jordan Miller LAC 10.2 3.0 2.4
12 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.7 3.8
13 Bryce McGowens NO 9.6 2.6 1.7
14 Jordan Poole NO 9.2 3.1 2.3
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.6 2.8 2.2
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.8 4.2 1.3
17 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 6.6 2.3 2.0
18 Yves Missi NO 6.3 6.0 1.1
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 5.9 4.5 0.8
20 DeAndre Jordan NO 5.4 7.2 0.7
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.3 3.0 1.3
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.8 2.0 0.7
23 Micah Peavy NO 3.8 1.8 0.7
24 Cam Christie LAC 3.4 1.4 0.7
25 Kevon Looney NO 2.9 5.2 0.8
26 Isaiah Jackson LAC 2.3 3.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.