NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
10087
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC36222517100
DAL2524201887

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 30 4 5
Chet Holmgren S 28 19 9 1
Isaiah Joe 21 14 5 0
Jared McCain 22 11 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 7 5 4
Aaron Wiggins 15 6 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 21 5 4 0
Cason Wallace S 30 4 6 8
Alex Caruso 22 4 6 1
Jaylin Williams 17 0 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caleb Martin S 30 18 3 0
Max Christie S 35 14 7 0
Brandon Williams S 24 14 3 3
Dwight Powell 21 9 9 2
Daniel Gafford S 22 8 7 2
Klay Thompson 15 7 0 1
Ryan Nembhard 24 7 2 5
AJ Johnson 22 6 4 4
Khris Middleton S 25 4 2 3
Moussa Cisse 21 0 12 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes alley oop layup (Brandon Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
12%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
6 Brandon Williams DAL
8%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
10 Khris Middleton DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.8 4.8 8.3
2 Naji Marshall DAL 20.7 5.0 4.2
3 Cason Wallace OKC 16.4 4.4 5.6
4 Brandon Williams DAL 16.0 3.4 5.0
5 Khris Middleton DAL 14.1 4.0 3.1
6 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.9 3.6 2.3
7 Max Christie DAL 13.8 3.6 2.6
8 P.J. Washington DAL 13.8 6.2 1.9
9 Jaylin Williams OKC 12.5 5.6 2.9
10 Chet Holmgren OKC 10.8 8.3 2.2
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.8 3.4 2.7
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.4 7.9 4.9
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.3 3.5 2.1
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.8 7.2 1.3
15 Klay Thompson DAL 9.3 2.2 1.6
16 Jared McCain OKC 9.3 3.0 1.5
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.3 3.7 1.2
18 Alex Caruso OKC 7.4 2.0 2.0
19 Caleb Martin DAL 7.1 3.8 1.9
20 AJ Johnson DAL 5.9 1.8 1.5
21 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.7 6.4 0.7
22 Ryan Nembhard DAL 3.9 1.1 3.6
23 Buddy Boeheim OKC 3.3 0.6 0.8
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.2 2.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.