NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
106–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET23273125106
ORL2631181792

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 29 6 11
Tobias Harris S 33 23 7 1
Jalen Duren S 34 16 10 1
Ronald Holland II 26 11 3 2
Ausar Thompson S 21 9 11 3
Caris LeVert 20 8 2 3
Paul Reed 14 5 6 0
Javonte Green 18 3 8 1
Daniss Jenkins 11 2 0 0
Duncan Robinson S 25 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 24 11 2
Tristan da Silva S 37 19 6 2
Desmond Bane S 38 17 4 7
Jalen Suggs S 26 14 3 4
Moritz Wagner 13 9 3 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 33 4 9 2
Jonathan Isaac 9 3 1 0
Jevon Carter 30 2 3 3
Jett Howard 13 0 1 0
Jase Richardson 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
12%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
6 Tobias Harris DET
11%
7 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
32%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.5 6.7 6.0
2 Desmond Bane ORL 23.1 3.9 3.7
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.8 6.3 7.4
4 Jalen Duren DET 14.8 8.8 1.5
5 Duncan Robinson DET 13.3 3.2 2.2
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.0 4.5 6.0
7 Tobias Harris DET 11.4 6.4 2.1
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 8.1 2.0
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 5.9 3.7
10 Paul Reed DET 9.9 6.1 1.2
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.3 3.4 1.2
12 Ronald Holland II DET 8.1 4.8 1.4
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.7 2.6 1.3
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.7 3.5 1.7
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.3 2.9 0.9
16 Caris LeVert DET 6.5 2.4 2.0
17 Jevon Carter ORL 5.7 2.0 1.4
18 Kevin Huerter DET 5.3 3.2 1.5
19 Javonte Green DET 4.9 2.5 0.7
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.7 1.8 0.9
21 Marcus Sasser DET 4.4 1.3 1.6
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.6 4.3 0.4
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.6 0.8
24 Tolu Smith DET 2.9 3.3 0.5
25 Noah Penda ORL 2.5 1.7 0.7
26 Jase Richardson ORL 2.3 0.8 0.7
27 Jamal Cain ORL 2.1 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.