NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
98–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2822331598
BOS26362725114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 43 33 3 6
VJ Edgecombe S 40 23 5 3
Dominick Barlow S 28 14 8 1
Andre Drummond S 32 10 12 4
Quentin Grimes 27 5 1 2
Adem Bona 16 5 4 1
Trendon Watford 15 4 0 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 4 4 2
Cameron Payne 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Neemias Queta S 27 27 17 2
Jaylen Brown S 38 27 8 8
Derrick White S 39 21 6 8
Baylor Scheierman S 32 12 4 2
Nikola Vucevic 21 11 12 0
Sam Hauser S 29 8 4 2
Jordan Walsh 14 6 1 0
Hugo Gonzalez 13 2 4 0
Payton Pritchard 27 0 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Andre Drummond assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
6 Sam Hauser BOS
10%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
10%
8 Derrick White BOS
9%
9 Baylor Scheierman BOS
8%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
46%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.7 3.6 5.1
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.5 6.4 5.1
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 21.2 3.8 6.2
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.0 6.6 3.1
5 Derrick White BOS 17.1 4.3 6.4
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.5 4.7 2.7
7 Nikola Vucevic BOS 13.4 7.6 2.1
8 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.5 2.8 2.5
9 Sam Hauser BOS 9.9 3.4 1.8
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.9 6.3 2.5
11 Neemias Queta BOS 9.8 8.7 1.6
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.4 4.7 1.1
13 Trendon Watford PHI 6.0 3.4 1.9
14 Andre Drummond PHI 5.6 6.7 1.2
15 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.3 3.4 0.9
16 Adem Bona PHI 5.3 4.6 0.7
17 Luka Garza BOS 4.9 2.4 0.8
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.7 2.4 1.0
19 Cameron Payne PHI 4.3 1.0 1.7
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.2 2.9 0.8
21 Justin Edwards PHI 3.3 1.0 0.4
22 Dalano Banton BOS 2.9 1.2 0.8
23 Jabari Walker PHI 2.6 1.4 0.6
24 Amari Williams BOS 2.0 2.2 0.4
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.4 0.5 0.7
26 Max Shulga BOS 1.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.