NBA games

POR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
101–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR25332716101
ATL44312832135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home ATL
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 28 23 6 4
Donovan Clingan S 31 15 15 5
Vit Krejci 30 14 4 1
Blake Wesley 20 12 2 3
Scoot Henderson 24 11 2 3
Toumani Camara S 35 9 2 2
Matisse Thybulle 15 7 1 1
Sidy Cissoko 18 6 1 1
Jerami Grant S 26 4 2 2
Kris Murray S 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 25 10 6
Jonathan Kuminga 25 20 7 3
CJ McCollum S 26 19 2 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 28 15 3 4
Jock Landale 18 14 5 1
Dyson Daniels S 26 12 6 7
Corey Kispert 16 8 2 0
Jalen Johnson S 30 8 8 8
Gabe Vincent 11 5 2 1
Zaccharie Risacher 23 5 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
4 CJ McCollum ATL
8%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Deni Avdija POR
7%
9 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
29%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum ATL 21.1 3.9 3.9
2 Jrue Holiday POR 20.6 4.6 5.6
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.6 4.2 5.6
4 Jerami Grant POR 19.6 4.0 2.2
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.6 8.4 5.4
6 Donovan Clingan POR 16.1 11.2 2.9
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.3 7.3 2.7
8 Scoot Henderson POR 14.7 3.7 4.9
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.2 5.4 2.6
10 Deni Avdija POR 13.9 5.4 4.5
11 Corey Kispert ATL 11.7 3.5 2.0
12 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.5 5.9 5.4
13 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 10.0 4.8 2.0
14 Jock Landale ATL 9.5 4.8 1.5
15 Vit Krejci POR 8.7 2.7 1.7
16 Robert Williams III POR 8.4 7.8 1.6
17 Kris Murray POR 7.9 3.8 1.5
18 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 7.8 4.7 1.4
19 Buddy Hield ATL 7.6 2.3 1.5
20 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.8 3.3 1.8
21 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.6 1.5 1.8
22 Blake Wesley POR 5.5 1.5 2.1
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.3 4.0 0.8
24 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 2.2 0.8
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.3 1.2 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 3.1 1.8 0.5
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.8 1.3 0.7
28 Javonte Cooke POR 2.7 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.