NBA games

MEM @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
125–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM34312634125
IND34262323106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home IND
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Taylor Hendricks 24 19 5 0
Jaylen Wells S 21 18 3 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 21 17 2 3
Rayan Rupert 33 16 6 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 20 16 3 5
GG Jackson S 20 11 9 2
Cam Spencer 23 10 3 4
Javon Small 19 7 4 3
Walter Clayton Jr. S 34 7 3 14
Jahmai Mashack 23 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 25 21 3 2
Micah Potter 25 18 9 0
Jay Huff S 28 14 4 0
Taelon Peter 36 11 1 2
Kam Jones S 33 10 2 10
Kobe Brown 27 9 1 1
Ben Sheppard S 22 9 2 1
T.J. McConnell 14 8 0 5
Obi Toppin S 11 4 4 5
Quenton Jackson 20 2 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Obi Toppin · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Obi Toppin makes 16-foot jumper (Kam Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
2 Ty Jerome MEM
10%
3 GG Jackson MEM
9%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
6 Jarace Walker IND
8%
7 Obi Toppin IND
7%
8 Jay Huff IND
7%
9 Cedric Coward MEM
7%
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
17%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.4 5.3 3.6
2 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.7 3.4 7.9
3 Jarace Walker IND 18.9 8.2 4.5
4 GG Jackson MEM 18.8 6.0 2.9
5 Ty Jerome MEM 17.5 3.1 5.6
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.5 3.3 2.3
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.8 5.0 1.8
8 Micah Potter IND 12.8 4.9 2.4
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.7 2.7 5.2
10 Javon Small MEM 12.6 4.4 4.1
11 Quenton Jackson IND 12.0 3.1 2.8
12 Cedric Coward MEM 11.9 4.2 3.0
13 Jay Huff IND 11.6 4.5 2.1
14 Cam Spencer MEM 10.9 2.9 5.2
15 Ben Sheppard IND 10.7 3.5 2.4
16 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.3 4.8 1.8
17 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 3.8 2.1
18 Kam Jones IND 9.3 2.7 3.8
19 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 2.6 4.4
20 Kobe Brown IND 8.5 4.7 1.6
21 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 8.0 2.7 4.0
22 Jahmai Mashack MEM 7.0 2.9 1.8
23 Rayan Rupert MEM 5.7 2.8 1.2
24 Taelon Peter IND 4.7 1.6 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.