NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
117–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22363227117
DEN31193226108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 21 3 6
Jaden McDaniels S 33 20 1 3
Bones Hyland 16 18 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 17 3 5
Julius Randle S 32 14 9 7
Naz Reid 26 11 6 2
Ayo Dosunmu 21 9 2 4
Rudy Gobert S 38 7 15 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 35 13 9
Jamal Murray S 39 25 5 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 34 17 3 1
Christian Braun S 38 15 6 1
Bruce Brown 28 6 4 1
Jalen Pickett 6 4 3 2
Zeke Nnaji 6 2 1 0
Julian Strawther S 17 2 0 0
Jonas Valanciunas 10 2 5 0
KJ Simpson 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Joan Beringer MIN
8%
8 Christian Braun DEN
7%
9 Julian Strawther DEN
7%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.4 13.1 10.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.8 4.8 3.5
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.1 6.5 5.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 19.5 4.5 6.1
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.0 4.9 3.1
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 13.9 3.4 3.5
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.5 2.9 1.5
8 Christian Braun DEN 13.4 5.3 3.4
9 Julian Strawther DEN 13.0 4.0 1.9
10 Naz Reid MIN 12.8 6.2 2.5
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.1 11.3 1.5
12 Cameron Johnson DEN 11.9 3.9 2.2
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.6 3.5 4.6
14 Bruce Brown DEN 10.6 3.7 2.2
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.6 4.9 1.1
16 Bones Hyland MIN 7.4 2.4 2.4
17 KJ Simpson DEN 5.7 1.9 2.5
18 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.2 1.1 0.6
19 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.1 1.5 0.7
20 Mike Conley MIN 3.7 2.0 1.9
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.6 1.5 1.5
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 3.2 0.6
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.8 1.2 0.4
24 Joan Beringer MIN 2.6 1.7 0.3
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.2 0.7 0.3
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.5 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.