NBA games

MIL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
97–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL323423897
CHI30213633120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHI
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis 24 18 5 0
Cam Thomas 18 15 1 3
AJ Green S 30 13 2 2
Ryan Rollins S 34 11 7 7
Kyle Kuzma S 23 10 3 4
Kevin Porter Jr. S 32 10 6 4
Myles Turner S 21 8 7 0
Ousmane Dieng 21 7 1 3
Gary Trent Jr. 4 3 0 0
Jericho Sims 24 2 11 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 32 22 3 2
Matas Buzelis S 32 20 7 3
Josh Giddey S 32 20 14 10
Leonard Miller 27 15 5 4
Tre Jones S 28 13 3 6
Guerschon Yabusele S 23 12 7 5
Nick Richards 27 11 7 0
Isaac Okoro S 32 7 4 3
Rob Dillingham 5 0 0 1
Yuki Kawamura 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
13%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
13%
3 Isaac Okoro CHI
11%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
6 Collin Sexton CHI
9%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
8 AJ Green MIL
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
8%
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 23.8 6.2 8.5
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 23.7 5.0 6.5
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 18.4 6.1 2.9
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.4 4.9 3.5
5 Josh Giddey CHI 14.1 4.8 6.2
6 Cam Thomas MIL 13.0 2.8 2.3
7 Myles Turner MIL 12.8 5.9 1.7
8 Bobby Portis MIL 12.7 5.8 1.7
9 Isaac Okoro CHI 12.1 3.5 2.0
10 Collin Sexton CHI 11.7 2.2 2.0
11 Tre Jones CHI 10.8 3.0 5.8
12 AJ Green MIL 10.7 2.8 2.1
13 Jericho Sims MIL 9.4 8.2 2.2
14 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 9.4 5.2 1.9
15 Nick Richards CHI 8.1 6.3 1.0
16 Rob Dillingham CHI 6.8 2.5 3.2
17 Pete Nance MIL 6.7 2.8 1.3
18 Ousmane Dieng MIL 6.6 3.2 1.4
19 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.2 1.3 1.0
20 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.3 2.5 4.2
21 Mac McClung CHI 3.9 1.0 0.5
22 Gary Harris MIL 3.8 1.5 1.2
23 Leonard Miller CHI 3.4 1.8 0.7
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.