NBA games

CLE @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
106–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE29172832106
BKN24282327102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BKN
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 36 22 9 8
Jarrett Allen S 32 20 6 1
Evan Mobley S 27 17 13 2
Sam Merrill S 27 15 1 2
Dennis Schroder 25 12 1 5
Jaylon Tyson S 28 9 1 2
Thomas Bryant 10 4 2 1
Keon Ellis 31 4 3 2
Craig Porter Jr. 18 3 1 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 26 5 1
Danny Wolf 27 23 9 5
Nolan Traore S 30 17 1 2
Grant Nelson 20 11 4 1
Day'Ron Sharpe S 28 7 8 3
Noah Clowney S 23 5 1 1
Josh Minott 17 5 2 1
Ben Saraf 18 4 1 4
Ziaire Williams 33 4 0 5
Terance Mann S 14 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot driving dunk (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
19%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
18%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Nolan Traore BKN
10%
5 James Harden CLE
9%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
7 Dennis Schroder CLE
8%
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE
7%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
6%
10 Danny Wolf BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
9%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 21.7 6.4 3.5
2 James Harden CLE 21.1 4.7 8.9
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 21.1 11.1 2.2
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.0 8.6 2.9
5 Nolan Traore BKN 14.9 3.0 6.1
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE 12.6 4.7 1.6
7 Sam Merrill CLE 11.8 2.8 1.8
8 Dennis Schroder CLE 11.5 2.8 5.0
9 Danny Wolf BKN 11.5 4.8 2.8
10 Noah Clowney BKN 11.1 3.6 1.5
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.5 6.7 2.3
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 3.1 1.6
13 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.7 3.8 1.2
14 Terance Mann BKN 7.5 2.4 1.9
15 Keon Ellis CLE 6.4 3.1 1.9
16 Ben Saraf BKN 5.9 1.8 2.6
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.8 2.7 4.6
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 2.4 0.9
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.3 2.4 0.8
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.8 1.3 1.8
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.5 2.1 1.0
22 Josh Minott BKN 3.6 1.4 0.6
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.5 2.2 0.8
24 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.