NBA games

SA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
89–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2120282089
NY22292934114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NY
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 25 13 2
Devin Vassell S 35 18 7 3
Stephon Castle S 30 13 4 4
Dylan Harper 22 8 3 4
De'Aaron Fox S 31 7 3 6
Kelly Olynyk 4 5 0 0
Keldon Johnson 17 3 3 0
Julian Champagnie S 24 3 4 1
Harrison Barnes 17 3 0 2
Jordan McLaughlin 4 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 33 25 5 2
Jalen Brunson S 32 24 4 7
Mohamed Diawara 15 14 4 0
OG Anunoby S 35 12 5 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 12 14 1
Josh Hart S 30 10 10 7
Landry Shamet 25 7 1 3
Mitchell Robinson 15 4 5 0
Jose Alvarado 17 3 3 5
Ariel Hukporti 2 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 De'Aaron Fox SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
20%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 20.3 10.0 2.9
2 Jalen Brunson NY 19.1 3.8 4.9
3 Stephon Castle SA 18.9 4.8 6.1
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.9 8.4 2.4
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.7 4.6 2.8
6 Mikal Bridges NY 14.7 4.0 3.5
7 Dylan Harper SA 12.8 4.2 4.5
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.7 3.9 2.6
9 Landry Shamet NY 11.3 2.2 2.1
10 De'Aaron Fox SA 11.0 2.3 4.3
11 Josh Hart NY 11.0 6.1 5.3
12 Keldon Johnson SA 10.8 3.8 1.5
13 Julian Champagnie SA 9.1 4.0 1.7
14 Jose Alvarado NY 8.3 2.8 3.2
15 Harrison Barnes SA 7.7 2.8 1.6
16 Tyler Kolek NY 6.0 1.7 3.3
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.9 6.9 1.0
18 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.8 1.9 1.1
19 Carter Bryant SA 5.4 3.2 1.0
20 Luke Kornet SA 5.2 5.7 1.4
21 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.0 1.5 1.1
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.6 3.4 0.6
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.8 1.3 0.5
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.7 0.9 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.6 1.2 0.7
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.6 1.5 0.6
27 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.5 1.0 1.0
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.0 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.