LAL @ GS
NBA
Chase Center
·Final
129–101
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 33 | 32 | 34 | 30 | 129 |
| GS | 20 | 27 | 25 | 29 | 101 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL
away
home
GS
53%
47%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic S | 29 | 26 | 6 | 8 |
| LeBron James S | 28 | 22 | 7 | 9 |
| Austin Reaves S | 28 | 18 | 1 | 3 |
| Luke Kennard | 27 | 16 | 3 | 3 |
| Jake LaRavia | 27 | 15 | 5 | 3 |
| Marcus Smart S | 29 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Kobe Bufkin | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 15 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Maxi Kleber | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Deandre Ayton S | 20 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Draymond Green ·
Dunk (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 2-foot dunk (Moses Moody assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Gui Santos
GS
11%
2
LeBron James
LAL
10%
3
Austin Reaves
LAL
10%
4
Deandre Ayton
LAL
9%
5
De'Anthony Melton
GS
9%
6
Brandin Podziemski
GS
8%
7
Luka Doncic
LAL
8%
8
Moses Moody
GS
7%
9
Draymond Green
GS
7%
10
Marcus Smart
LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL | 26.6 | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| 2 | Austin Reaves | LAL | 20.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| 3 | LeBron James | LAL | 18.1 | 5.2 | 6.4 |
| 4 | Gui Santos | GS | 17.0 | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| 5 | De'Anthony Melton | GS | 16.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| 6 | Moses Moody | GS | 15.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| 7 | Brandin Podziemski | GS | 14.7 | 7.0 | 4.8 |
| 8 | Kristaps Porzingis | GS | 14.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| 9 | Al Horford | GS | 12.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Deandre Ayton | LAL | 12.0 | 8.2 | 1.4 |
| 11 | Pat Spencer | GS | 11.2 | 3.1 | 5.2 |
| 12 | Marcus Smart | LAL | 10.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 13 | Draymond Green | GS | 9.6 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| 14 | Luke Kennard | LAL | 9.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 15 | Jake LaRavia | LAL | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 16 | Gary Payton II | GS | 8.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 17 | Jaxson Hayes | LAL | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| 18 | Will Richard | GS | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 19 | Quinten Post | GS | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 20 | Jarred Vanderbilt | LAL | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| 21 | Nate Williams | GS | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Malevy Leons | GS | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 23 | Kobe Bufkin | LAL | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Maxi Kleber | LAL | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Dalton Knecht | LAL | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.