NBA games

TOR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
134–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25363736134
WSH33312833125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home WSH
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 37 27 2 11
Brandon Ingram S 34 24 5 5
RJ Barrett S 33 21 5 3
Jakob Poeltl S 26 18 10 3
Scottie Barnes S 29 18 4 4
Jamal Shead 22 7 1 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 7 3 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 24 6 1 2
Jamison Battle 17 6 4 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley 35 19 4 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 23 14 5 4
Kyshawn George S 15 14 3 1
Tristan Vukcevic S 19 13 3 3
Bub Carrington S 21 12 3 5
Justin Champagnie 22 12 5 2
Jaden Hardy 20 11 0 0
Jamir Watkins 21 10 2 0
Tre Johnson S 19 8 3 0
Anthony Gill 28 8 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 22-foot running jump shot (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
3 Will Riley WSH
10%
4 Tre Johnson WSH
10%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
6 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
8 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.5 4.1 5.6
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.8 5.1 4.0
3 RJ Barrett TOR 17.9 6.2 4.0
4 Alex Sarr WSH 17.4 8.2 2.7
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 15.3 7.3 5.0
6 Will Riley WSH 14.0 4.3 2.4
7 Tre Johnson WSH 13.4 3.2 2.5
8 Kyshawn George WSH 12.4 3.5 2.8
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.7 3.9 2.6
10 Sharife Cooper WSH 11.4 3.3 3.6
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.6 4.1 1.7
12 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.4 4.4 1.4
13 Bub Carrington WSH 10.3 3.8 4.0
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.0 5.5 1.2
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.8 4.2 1.5
16 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.5 6.4 1.8
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.0 3.7 1.8
18 Jaden Hardy WSH 8.2 1.9 1.5
19 Anthony Gill WSH 8.0 4.2 2.2
20 Jamal Shead TOR 7.9 2.7 4.6
21 Gradey Dick TOR 4.4 2.3 0.9
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.4 1.5 0.7
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.0 2.1 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.