NBA games

HOU @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
105–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28243122105
MIA32193430115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIA
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 32 5 8
Amen Thompson S 39 20 11 4
Reed Sheppard S 36 14 4 5
Alperen Sengun S 35 13 6 3
Tari Eason S 36 10 11 5
Clint Capela 13 7 3 1
Aaron Holiday 9 5 1 0
Jeff Green 12 4 4 0
Josh Okogie 8 0 0 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 35 24 11 1
Pelle Larsson S 35 20 4 4
Tyler Herro S 33 18 2 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 14 3 3
Kel'el Ware 29 13 15 1
Andrew Wiggins S 31 12 6 4
Davion Mitchell S 25 10 3 5
Dru Smith 7 4 1 0
Simone Fontecchio 9 0 0 1
Kasparas Jakucionis 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pelle Larsson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Pelle Larsson makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
12%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
7 Tari Eason HOU
9%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
24%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 21.8 5.1 4.1
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.4 4.7 4.3
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.0 9.6 3.5
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.6 5.1 2.6
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.0 6.6 1.9
6 Alperen Sengun HOU 16.3 7.7 5.9
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.7 3.9 3.4
8 Amen Thompson HOU 14.8 7.2 4.8
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.3 5.4 3.9
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.6 5.2 3.9
11 Tari Eason HOU 10.9 6.1 2.0
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 8.6 0.9
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.6 2.9 5.2
14 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 9.0 2.9 3.4
15 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.7 3.0 1.2
16 Josh Okogie HOU 6.1 3.0 0.9
17 Myron Gardner MIA 5.1 4.2 1.3
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.9 2.5 1.1
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.4 1.0
20 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.1 2.2 0.8
21 Dru Smith MIA 4.0 2.4 2.2
22 Clint Capela HOU 3.8 4.6 0.6
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.3 0.6
24 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.2 1.8 0.6
25 Jahmir Young MIA 2.8 0.8 0.6
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.1 0.4
27 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.