NBA games

POR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
93–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR1726242693
CHA29222335109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CHA
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 33 25 5 4
Jerami Grant S 32 21 1 2
Toumani Camara S 33 12 6 2
Scoot Henderson 23 8 3 4
Donovan Clingan S 26 7 8 2
Robert Williams III 17 5 6 2
Matisse Thybulle 12 5 3 2
Vit Krejci 26 4 1 2
Kris Murray S 17 2 4 0
Yang Hansen 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 33 26 8 2
Coby White 21 20 3 1
LaMelo Ball S 30 15 4 8
Miles Bridges S 32 14 8 5
Moussa Diabate S 33 13 11 5
Kon Knueppel S 29 10 8 1
Josh Green 15 6 3 0
Sion James 14 3 0 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 2 7 0
Grant Williams 14 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Kris Murray makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
4 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
5 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
8 Jerami Grant POR
8%
9 Deni Avdija POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
15%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.3 5.7 4.4
2 Kon Knueppel CHA 23.0 5.8 3.4
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.3 4.8 6.5
4 Coby White CHA 20.3 4.2 5.7
5 Jrue Holiday POR 19.5 4.6 5.9
6 Jerami Grant POR 18.8 3.8 2.3
7 Miles Bridges CHA 16.0 5.7 3.5
8 Donovan Clingan POR 15.5 11.3 3.0
9 Scoot Henderson POR 15.1 3.4 4.9
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.9 5.6 2.6
11 Deni Avdija POR 13.8 5.3 4.3
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.6 9.9 2.6
13 Grant Williams CHA 9.7 4.9 2.3
14 Vit Krejci POR 8.3 2.4 1.5
15 Robert Williams III POR 8.3 7.1 1.4
16 Kris Murray POR 8.1 3.8 1.7
17 Sidy Cissoko POR 6.9 3.5 2.0
18 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.7 6.2 1.2
19 Josh Green CHA 6.6 2.5 1.1
20 Blake Wesley POR 5.8 1.5 2.2
21 Sion James CHA 5.8 3.6 2.2
22 Tre Mann CHA 5.1 2.4 1.5
23 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.7 0.7
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.5 2.0 0.9
25 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.3 1.6 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 1.6 1.1 0.3
27 Javonte Cooke POR 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.