NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
121–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DEN3326242414121
OKC1931273020127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 47 39 8 6
Nikola Jokic S 45 23 17 14
Christian Braun S 45 23 8 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 33 16 2 1
Bruce Brown 29 7 3 1
Cameron Johnson S 40 7 8 1
Jonas Valanciunas 8 6 2 0
Spencer Jones 2 0 0 0
Julian Strawther S 15 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 36 3 9
Chet Holmgren S 38 15 21 3
Jared McCain 19 14 2 1
Alex Caruso 28 12 1 1
Jaylin Williams 26 12 5 3
Cason Wallace S 36 10 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 9 8 5
Isaiah Joe 23 9 4 3
Luguentz Dort S 28 8 6 1
Aaron Wiggins 8 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 10-foot two point shot (Christian Braun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cason Wallace OKC
11%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
5 Julian Strawther DEN
9%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC
7%
8 Christian Braun DEN
7%
9 Chet Holmgren OKC
6%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
31%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.9 4.6 6.5
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.8 12.8 9.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 19.3 4.1 6.1
4 Cason Wallace OKC 14.6 4.1 5.4
5 Isaiah Joe OKC 14.5 3.2 2.1
6 Julian Strawther DEN 13.4 4.0 2.0
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.8 3.1 1.4
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 11.7 3.6 2.3
9 Jaylin Williams OKC 11.3 5.6 2.6
10 Christian Braun DEN 11.3 4.6 3.1
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.2 3.2 2.5
12 Chet Holmgren OKC 10.3 7.2 1.8
13 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.1 6.6 4.5
14 Bruce Brown DEN 10.0 3.5 2.0
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.1 1.9
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.8 3.7 1.3
17 Jared McCain OKC 8.6 2.7 1.5
18 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.0 4.9 1.2
19 Alex Caruso OKC 6.3 1.9 1.9
20 Spencer Jones DEN 6.2 4.0 1.1
21 KJ Simpson DEN 6.1 2.1 2.4
22 Nikola Topic OKC 6.0 1.9 2.8
23 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.4 1.8 0.7
24 Buddy Boeheim OKC 3.8 0.9 0.6
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 3.4 0.6
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.4 1.5 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.