NBA games

MEM @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
124–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM34303723124
DAL20242635105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Spencer 25 25 2 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 25 16 10 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 22 15 2 3
GG Jackson S 24 12 3 4
Jaylen Wells S 20 12 4 3
Taylor Hendricks 24 11 8 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 26 11 2 5
Javon Small S 26 9 4 5
Jahmai Mashack 23 8 3 1
Rayan Rupert 25 5 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Williams S 26 16 8 4
Daniel Gafford S 20 14 5 0
Dwight Powell 23 13 11 1
Max Christie S 29 13 3 2
AJ Johnson 34 12 3 4
Khris Middleton S 19 10 1 3
Miles Kelly 31 9 5 4
Moussa Cisse 13 8 8 0
Tyus Jones 22 6 0 4
Naji Marshall S 24 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
14%
2 Ty Jerome MEM
10%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
5 GG Jackson MEM
9%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
7 Khris Middleton DAL
8%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
7%
9 Caleb Martin DAL
7%
10 Max Christie DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Naji Marshall DAL 21.9 5.7 4.3
2 GG Jackson MEM 18.4 6.4 2.5
3 Ty Jerome MEM 17.4 3.0 5.6
4 Brandon Williams DAL 16.7 3.2 5.3
5 Khris Middleton DAL 16.0 4.7 3.8
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.4 3.4 2.3
7 P.J. Washington DAL 14.5 6.5 2.2
8 Max Christie DAL 14.1 3.7 2.8
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.7 4.6 1.7
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.9 2.7 5.2
11 Javon Small MEM 11.9 4.1 3.6
12 Cedric Coward MEM 11.8 4.3 3.0
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.9 7.2 1.6
14 Cam Spencer MEM 9.4 2.9 5.1
15 Taylor Hendricks MEM 9.0 4.0 1.8
16 Caleb Martin DAL 7.5 3.9 2.0
17 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 7.3 2.5 3.8
18 Jahmai Mashack MEM 5.9 2.5 1.6
19 Rayan Rupert MEM 5.8 2.8 1.2
20 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.6 6.4 0.8
21 AJ Johnson DAL 5.1 1.9 1.2
22 Tyus Jones DAL 5.0 1.5 2.7
23 Miles Kelly DAL 3.4 1.4 0.8
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 2.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.