NBA games

NY @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
127–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY38392624127
MIL3027261598

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 31 27 7 3
OG Anunoby S 28 24 3 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 17 13 1
Landry Shamet 23 15 0 3
Josh Hart S 25 12 5 5
Mohamed Diawara 23 10 3 2
Mikal Bridges S 26 10 0 6
Jose Alvarado 13 7 4 5
Tyler Kolek 6 3 0 0
Jeremy Sochan 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 25 19 4 2
Kyle Kuzma S 27 17 4 2
Bobby Portis 17 14 2 0
Ryan Rollins S 32 13 4 4
Kevin Porter Jr. S 27 11 6 10
Cam Thomas 17 7 2 1
AJ Green S 30 7 2 0
Gary Trent Jr. 6 5 1 0
Gary Harris 6 2 0 1
Jericho Sims 23 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Rollins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
11%
6 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
10%
7 OG Anunoby NY
10%
8 Myles Turner MIL
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 AJ Green MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 22.6 6.1 7.6
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 21.9 4.9 5.9
3 Jalen Brunson NY 19.1 3.5 5.6
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.0 8.3 2.4
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.4 4.6 2.7
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.4 4.2 3.3
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.6 4.8 3.2
8 Cam Thomas MIL 14.3 2.7 2.1
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.1 6.1 1.6
10 Myles Turner MIL 11.9 6.9 1.4
11 Josh Hart NY 11.4 5.7 5.0
12 Landry Shamet NY 10.9 2.0 1.9
13 AJ Green MIL 10.3 2.9 2.0
14 Jericho Sims MIL 9.3 8.3 2.0
15 Jose Alvarado NY 8.2 2.5 2.9
16 Pete Nance MIL 6.8 3.0 0.8
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.9 7.2 0.8
18 Ousmane Dieng MIL 5.9 2.9 1.1
19 Tyler Kolek NY 5.7 1.4 3.3
20 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.9 1.4 0.9
21 Jordan Clarkson NY 4.6 1.2 1.1
22 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 4.5 0.7 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 2.9 0.6
24 Gary Harris MIL 2.4 0.9 0.8
25 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.2 1.1 0.6
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.3 0.8 0.3
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.3 1.0 0.3
28 Trey Jemison III NY 1.3 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.