NBA games

BKN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
111–148
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN32252628111
BOS35314339148

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home BOS
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 26 18 2 2
Danny Wolf 23 16 2 1
Nic Claxton S 23 12 4 2
Noah Clowney S 22 10 3 2
Josh Minott 16 9 2 0
Nolan Traore S 24 8 2 7
Terance Mann 18 8 1 3
Ochai Agbaji 8 8 1 1
Ben Saraf 10 7 0 1
Egor Demin S 22 5 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic 25 28 11 4
Jaylen Brown S 30 28 7 9
Payton Pritchard 28 22 0 5
Sam Hauser S 27 13 3 2
Derrick White S 32 12 3 7
Baylor Scheierman S 22 10 3 6
Hugo Gonzalez 21 8 2 1
Neemias Queta S 15 8 2 1
Jordan Walsh 15 6 3 0
Dalano Banton 6 4 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sam Hauser · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Sam Hauser makes running layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Egor Demin BKN
10%
6 Sam Hauser BOS
10%
7 Nolan Traore BKN
9%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
35%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.9 6.6 4.2
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 22.5 6.5 3.6
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 20.2 3.9 6.2
4 Derrick White BOS 19.4 4.3 6.4
5 Nolan Traore BKN 14.3 3.2 5.6
6 Nikola Vucevic BOS 13.3 7.5 2.1
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.2 6.3 3.7
8 Noah Clowney BKN 11.4 4.0 1.3
9 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 11.3 7.5 2.6
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.8 9.2 1.9
11 Sam Hauser BOS 10.2 3.7 1.8
12 Danny Wolf BKN 10.2 4.6 2.8
13 Egor Demin BKN 9.7 3.3 3.0
14 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.5 3.2 1.4
15 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.7 6.2 2.0
16 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 2.6 1.7
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.5 3.5 0.9
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.5 2.4 0.9
19 Luka Garza BOS 5.2 2.4 0.8
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.0 2.7 1.0
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.3 2.1 0.9
22 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.2 3.2 0.7
23 Ben Saraf BKN 4.2 1.2 2.2
24 Dalano Banton BOS 3.1 1.4 0.8
25 Josh Minott BKN 3.0 1.3 0.5
26 John Tonje BOS 2.7 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.