NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
119–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CLE351930305119
DET272335298122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 31 25 9 4
Evan Mobley S 37 23 12 1
Sam Merrill S 36 20 1 3
Jaylon Tyson S 41 15 4 1
Thomas Bryant 16 13 8 1
Dennis Schroder S 38 12 1 9
Craig Porter Jr. 32 5 4 12
Tyrese Proctor 19 4 0 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 15 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 42 33 16 3
Cade Cunningham S 37 25 10 7
Ausar Thompson S 36 18 8 5
Ronald Holland II 15 12 3 0
Tobias Harris S 37 11 5 5
Duncan Robinson S 34 8 2 2
Daniss Jenkins 19 8 1 1
Paul Reed 11 4 6 1
Javonte Green 7 2 2 0
Caris LeVert 17 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 8-foot hook shot (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
14%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Dennis Schroder CLE
8%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
7%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jarrett Allen CLE 22.0 11.4 2.1
2 Cade Cunningham DET 20.3 5.7 7.9
3 Evan Mobley CLE 17.2 8.8 3.2
4 Jalen Duren DET 14.2 8.0 1.5
5 Duncan Robinson DET 12.9 3.1 2.2
6 Tobias Harris DET 11.9 6.5 1.9
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.8 4.7 1.7
8 Sam Merrill CLE 10.6 2.8 1.7
9 Ausar Thompson DET 9.9 5.7 3.5
10 Paul Reed DET 9.8 5.3 1.3
11 Dennis Schroder CLE 9.3 2.7 3.8
12 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.5 2.7 1.6
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.2 2.9 0.9
14 Ronald Holland II DET 7.1 4.6 1.5
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.9 3.5 1.1
16 Caris LeVert DET 6.6 2.2 2.1
17 Keon Ellis CLE 6.4 3.1 1.8
18 Kevin Huerter DET 6.0 3.3 1.6
19 Javonte Green DET 5.6 2.5 0.9
20 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.4 2.5 0.8
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.1 2.5 3.5
22 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.3 1.1 1.5
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.6 2.3 0.7
24 Marcus Sasser DET 3.5 0.7 1.3
25 Isaac Jones DET 3.4 1.4 0.6
26 Tolu Smith DET 3.1 3.3 0.5
27 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.1 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.