NBA games

MIN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
94–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN2915193194
LAC2711302088

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 31 3 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 18 3 4
Jaden McDaniels S 32 12 7 2
Ayo Dosunmu 23 12 2 1
Naz Reid 29 11 7 0
Julius Randle S 32 4 3 6
Rudy Gobert S 35 3 13 1
Bones Hyland 15 3 2 4
Mike Conley 3 0 1 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick Jones Jr. S 32 18 1 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 14 6 2
Kris Dunn S 32 11 6 7
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 16 10 4 0
Jordan Miller 24 10 3 1
Kobe Sanders 19 9 1 1
Brook Lopez S 32 8 6 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 17 8 6 4
Nicolas Batum S 26 0 6 3
Cam Christie 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Joan Beringer MIN
10%
6 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
9 Kobe Sanders LAC
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
22%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.0 4.8 3.2
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.3 6.7 5.4
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.5 5.6 3.6
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.0 4.7 3.1
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 15.2 3.8 4.0
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.8 6.1 2.8
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 11.1 1.7
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.6 3.9 1.6
9 Brook Lopez LAC 10.6 4.1 1.5
10 Jordan Miller LAC 10.5 2.9 2.4
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.5 3.5 4.4
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.8 3.5 5.5
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.7 2.8 2.4
14 Bones Hyland MIN 7.6 2.3 2.4
15 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.3 2.0 1.8
16 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.4 3.7 0.6
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.2 1.3 0.6
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.7 2.4 1.0
19 Mike Conley MIN 3.4 1.8 1.7
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.8 1.3 0.4
21 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.8 0.8 1.6
22 Cam Christie LAC 2.6 1.1 0.5
23 Joan Beringer MIN 2.6 1.7 0.3
24 Isaiah Jackson LAC 2.5 3.2 0.6
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.3 0.8 0.3
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.