NBA games

NO @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
129–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO37412526129
UTAH38232730118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home UTAH
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 34 42 5 7
Zion Williamson S 33 20 4 4
Dejounte Murray S 26 17 3 9
Jeremiah Fears 22 12 2 4
Karlo Matkovic 25 8 4 0
Herbert Jones S 26 8 1 6
Bryce McGowens 31 8 5 3
Derik Queen 20 7 7 1
DeAndre Jordan S 13 4 7 0
Jordan Poole 10 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ace Bailey S 29 23 4 1
Brice Sensabaugh 25 20 3 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 15 14 2 3
Kyle Filipowski S 18 13 6 2
Isaiah Collier S 27 11 1 7
Elijah Harkless 21 11 3 6
Oscar Tshiebwe 10 8 2 0
Cody Williams S 30 6 3 1
Kevin Love 20 6 8 4
John Konchar S 26 4 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ace Bailey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Ace Bailey makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Isaiah Collier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Isaiah Collier UTAH
18%
2 Zion Williamson NO
16%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
13%
4 Ace Bailey UTAH
11%
5 Cody Williams UTAH
11%
6 DeAndre Jordan NO
11%
7 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
10%
8 Herbert Jones NO
10%
9 Jordan Poole NO
0%
10 Derik Queen NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
18%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 23.2 6.3 4.2
2 Saddiq Bey NO 21.4 5.7 3.4
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH 21.0 5.1 9.8
4 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 15.9 3.5 2.0
5 Derik Queen NO 14.4 7.4 3.1
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 14.3 9.0 2.8
7 Ace Bailey UTAH 14.0 6.1 2.3
8 Jordan Poole NO 11.6 3.0 2.8
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 11.6 4.2 4.2
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.6 3.3
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.2 2.4 1.5
12 Bryce McGowens NO 8.2 2.1 1.6
13 Cody Williams UTAH 7.6 3.8 1.5
14 Kevin Love UTAH 6.4 5.6 1.5
15 DeAndre Jordan NO 6.2 7.8 0.9
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.1 4.2 1.1
17 John Konchar UTAH 5.9 4.2 1.9
18 Mo Bamba UTAH 3.6 2.1 0.8
19 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.5 1.5 1.0
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.2 1.7 0.6
21 Kevon Looney NO 3.1 5.5 0.9
22 Micah Peavy NO 3.0 1.1 0.7
23 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.2 3.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.