NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
110–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL27223130110
PHX22273133113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 41 8 8
LeBron James S 35 15 6 5
Austin Reaves S 36 14 3 2
Marcus Smart S 31 13 1 3
Jake LaRavia 28 11 5 1
Luke Kennard 21 8 3 0
Jaxson Hayes 21 6 8 1
Deandre Ayton S 23 2 4 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen 31 28 1 6
Collin Gillespie S 31 21 3 3
Royce O'Neale S 28 13 6 3
Ryan Dunn S 26 10 4 1
Jalen Green S 24 9 3 1
Oso Ighodaro 34 8 4 3
Rasheer Fleming 21 8 6 0
Jamaree Bouyea 14 6 2 3
Amir Coffey 17 6 2 2
Mark Williams S 13 4 10 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three pointer (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Collin Gillespie PHX
9%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
9 Jalen Green PHX
8%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
26%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 25.5 6.8 7.3
2 Grayson Allen PHX 20.8 4.0 4.6
3 Austin Reaves LAL 20.4 4.4 4.0
4 LeBron James LAL 18.4 5.1 6.4
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 13.3 3.9 5.0
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.0 8.4 1.3
7 Jalen Green PHX 11.1 3.1 2.4
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.2 4.6 2.1
9 Mark Williams PHX 10.1 7.5 1.3
10 Marcus Smart LAL 9.2 2.7 3.0
11 Luke Kennard LAL 8.9 3.1 1.5
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.6 3.1 1.5
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.6 4.9 2.6
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.2 3.6 1.0
15 Amir Coffey PHX 5.9 2.1 1.2
16 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.6 3.5 1.2
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.4 3.8 1.1
18 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 5.2 1.9 2.1
19 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.6 1.6 0.8
20 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.4 2.3 0.8
21 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.3 1.4 0.6
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.3 2.5 0.6
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.4 1.0 0.3
24 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.2 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.