NBA games

SAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
130–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC42263230130
DAL28283233121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DAL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Precious Achiuwa S 33 29 12 4
Maxime Raynaud S 32 22 6 0
Daeqwon Plowden 26 19 4 0
Devin Carter S 32 15 7 5
Nique Clifford S 39 13 8 7
Drew Eubanks 10 11 2 0
Malik Monk 19 8 0 2
DeMar DeRozan S 25 7 2 5
Killian Hayes 18 5 4 6
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 6 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 42 36 10 6
Khris Middleton S 33 17 5 4
Brandon Williams 27 16 3 4
AJ Johnson 15 11 2 1
Marvin Bagley III S 29 10 9 0
Caleb Martin S 20 10 0 2
Klay Thompson 16 8 2 2
Max Christie S 27 8 2 0
Moussa Cisse 7 2 5 0
Dwight Powell 13 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Precious Achiuwa · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
23%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
19%
3 Khris Middleton DAL
17%
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC
15%
5 Max Christie DAL
13%
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC
12%
7 Nique Clifford SAC
0%
8 Malik Monk SAC
0%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
0%
10 Devin Carter SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
26%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Naji Marshall DAL 19.4 5.2 3.7
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.5 3.5 3.9
3 Brandon Williams DAL 16.9 3.2 5.2
4 Khris Middleton DAL 14.4 4.2 3.2
5 Max Christie DAL 14.2 3.8 2.9
6 Nique Clifford SAC 14.1 4.2 4.2
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC 13.2 9.7 1.9
8 Malik Monk SAC 13.1 2.5 3.8
9 Marvin Bagley III DAL 12.4 7.7 1.6
10 Klay Thompson DAL 9.6 2.4 1.6
11 Devin Carter SAC 9.1 3.6 2.9
12 Precious Achiuwa SAC 8.3 5.8 1.4
13 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 7.6 3.3 1.5
14 Caleb Martin DAL 7.4 4.6 2.3
15 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.6 8.6 1.3
16 Tyus Jones DAL 4.9 1.4 3.3
17 AJ Johnson DAL 4.8 1.9 1.2
18 Moussa Cisse DAL 4.7 5.8 0.5
19 Killian Hayes SAC 4.5 1.3 2.1
20 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 4.2 2.0 1.0
21 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.1 3.3 0.8
22 Doug McDermott SAC 3.8 1.0 0.6
23 Miles Kelly DAL 3.6 1.5 0.8
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.