NBA games

POR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
121–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32372428121
CHI34292326112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CHI
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 35 27 5 2
Toumani Camara S 36 16 5 2
Robert Williams III 23 14 14 1
Vit Krejci 19 14 3 2
Scoot Henderson S 24 12 3 4
Jrue Holiday S 32 10 3 7
Blake Wesley 14 10 0 4
Kris Murray S 28 10 5 3
Matisse Thybulle 12 5 3 0
Sidy Cissoko 17 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 36 20 7 4
Tre Jones 27 19 3 4
Josh Giddey S 28 15 6 9
Nick Richards 27 14 10 1
Isaac Okoro S 37 12 5 0
Leonard Miller 23 11 3 2
Collin Sexton S 18 10 0 3
Guerschon Yabusele S 21 6 5 1
Rob Dillingham 23 5 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes 1-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jrue Holiday POR
13%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 Donovan Clingan POR
12%
4 Deni Avdija POR
11%
5 Isaac Okoro CHI
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Kris Murray POR
8%
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
32%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jrue Holiday POR 21.1 4.7 6.0
2 Jerami Grant POR 18.7 4.0 2.5
3 Donovan Clingan POR 17.2 13.3 3.5
4 Scoot Henderson POR 16.6 3.6 5.7
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.2 5.8 1.9
6 Toumani Camara POR 15.0 6.1 2.9
7 Deni Avdija POR 14.8 5.7 5.1
8 Josh Giddey CHI 14.0 5.0 5.8
9 Isaac Okoro CHI 12.5 3.4 2.1
10 Tre Jones CHI 12.3 3.3 6.1
11 Collin Sexton CHI 11.1 2.8 1.6
12 Vit Krejci POR 9.3 3.0 1.7
13 Kris Murray POR 9.3 4.3 1.8
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.5 3.8 2.4
15 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 8.2 5.4 1.7
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.2 7.7 1.3
17 Nick Richards CHI 7.0 6.1 0.6
18 Rob Dillingham CHI 6.2 2.6 2.3
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.6 2.0 1.0
20 Blake Wesley POR 4.9 1.5 2.0
21 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.2 2.7 4.0
22 Mac McClung CHI 3.7 1.2 0.6
23 Leonard Miller CHI 3.0 2.0 0.7
24 Yang Hansen POR 2.5 2.2 0.5
25 Javonte Cooke POR 2.2 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.